Ag Market View for July 6.22


Soybeans ended higher. C IL soybean basis jumped 20 cents. SU ended near 13.41 with range of 13.21- 13.58. Soyoil dropped below 60 cents. Dalian soyoil and palmoil futures were sharply lower. Managed funds continue to liquidate longs in soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. Algorithm machines are still net sellers on the open on headlines of US recession. World Sep-June soybean exports were near 126 mmt vs 134 ly. US exports were 53 mmt vs 59 ly and Brazil 66 mmt vs 66 ly. China imports were near 75 mmt vs 84 ly. .USDA lowered US soybean crop rating to 63 G/E from 65 lw.


Corn futures ended higher. CU ended near 5.99 with a range of 5.82-6.01. CN ended near 7.44. CZ ended near 5.85. Managed funds were early sellers of corn. Algorithm machines are still net sellers on the open on headlines of higher US interest rates pushing US economy into a recession and possibly a depression. Informa raised Brazil corn crop 1.5 mmt to 114.5. They dropped Argentina corn crop 3 mmt to 55. USDA lowered US corn rating to 64 pct G/E vs 67 lw. Over next 5 days US rains could be in E NE, S IA, C IL and KY. Rains could miss US SW, and the Delta. Next week looks warmer and drier in US west, SW and Delta. USDA est US 2021/22 corn feed use near 5,625 mil bu vs 5,597 ly, ethanol 5,375 vs 5,033 ly and exports 2,450 vs 2,753 ly. Some feel final demand could be up 150 mil bu which suggest carryout closer to 1,345 vs USDA 1,485. Est of US 2022 crop ranges from14,460 to 14,710. USDA est total US 2022/23 corn demand near 14,570 with some closer to 14,785. US 2022/23 carryout ranges from a high of 1,555 to a low of 1,100 vs USDA 1,400. This still suggest a lot of price volatility over next 30 days.


Wheat futures ended higher. WU ended near 8.04 with a range of 7.85-8.38. KWU ended near 8.53 with a range of 8.32-8.87. MWU ended near 8.86 with a range of 8.70-9.12. On May 17, WU was near 12.85, KWU 13.80 and MWU 14.06. Managed funds continue to add to shorts in wheat. Algorithm machines are still net sellers on the open on headlines of higher US interest rates pushing US economy into a recession and possibly a depression. Informa raised Russia wheat crop 2 mmt to 86 and Canada wheat crop .9 to 33.8. They dropped Argentina wheat 1.4 mmt to 18.5 and EU crop 1 mmt to 133. USDA raised spring wheat from 59 G/E to 66. USDA winter wheat crop is rated 31 pct G/E vs 30 lw with 54 pct of crop harvested vs 41 lw. 8.50-9.00 WU remains strong overhead resistance.

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