Ag Market View for July 15.22
Soybeans ended unchanged. Market trying to find value with part pf US Midwest dry versus talk of slower demand. US domestic soybean basis has dropped on a slowdown in export and crush demand. Some feel higher US Dollar may be slowing World soymeal use and domestic US feed demand may also be slowing. China economic slowdown is also raising concern about their total soybean imports. China Q2 economy contracted to lowest level since covid started. Palmoil prices are still historically low due to lower Asian demand. US soybean export commit is down 4 pct vs ly but new crop sales are record high. Brazil approved legislation favoring biofuel over fossil fuel for 20 years. US 2022/23 soybean outlook is tight due to lower acres. Q4 and Q1,2023 export and crush demand will be strong until South America 2023 harvest. 51.5 yield is a must or prices may need to trend higher.
Corn futures are ended mixed. Hot west EU and dry EU weather may be supporting corn futures more than US weather. Argentina corn crop is 58 pct harvested. Remaining crop rated 16 pct G/E. Brazil Ag Minister said there will be no corn exports to China until 2023 harvest as they need to improve, disease, fungus and weed control? Matif corn futures are near 4 week highs on weather concerns and need for more 2022/23 imports. US rains this weekend favor WI, MI, IL, IN and KY. Elsewhere will be warm and dry. Noon maps were drier and warmer for much of US Midwest next week. Crude prices ended higher while US Dollar was lower. USDA announce 2 cargo US corn sales to China. But later withdrew the sale. There is still concern that EU may need to import more corn than normal. IL rains is also offering resistance to futures. Trade still looking for increase demand for US corn exports and ethanol. Force liquidation of cattle in US SW due to heat and dryness may also drop corn feed use. Trade still debating US corn yield but better conditions in north and east offset problems in SW which to some suggest 177 US corn yield is still possible. There continues to be talk that as soon as next week Russia could agree to allow Ukraine exports. The deal would allow a ceasefire to allow Ukraine grain vessels to leave ports.
Wheat futures ended lower. Wheat was lower on continues talk that as soon as next week Russia could agree to allow Ukraine exports. The deal would allow a ceasefire to allow Ukraine grain vessels to leave ports. Vessels would have to be escorted and behind mine sweepers. Will Russia allow for Ukraine to receive revenue for war goods? Will someone insure the vessels? Trade will also be watching origin of World wheat sales are strong US weekly sales. Funds need to see WU trade back over 9.00 to buy futures. Some raising concern about a potential US rail engineer strike next week due to low staffs. WU/KWU are below pre Ukraine prices. Argentina wheat 91 pct planted with crop rated down 3 pct from last week and 18 pct G/E. Last year at this time the crop was rated 59 pct G/E. Sep-Dec Matif futures wheat spread at new highs. This due to lack of farmer selling. US wheat export prices are competitive to World buyers
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