Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
CORN
Corn futures ended lower and near 4.82. Trade watching Trump tariffs and impact of US corn export to Mexico. CH tested 4.97 earlier this week on new capital buying. Corn open interest is a record 2,000,000 contracts. This is up 650,000 contracts from August 2024 low. CH was near 4.03. Much of the increase was due to increase tech buying and farmer selling. Closes support is 4.67. Recent drop in prices may be due to some profit taking at month end. Talk of rains next week in C Argentina could offer resistance to futures. Argentina lowered their corn crop rating due to heat and dryness.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended lower and near 10.42. Trade watching Trump tariffs and impact of US soybean and soymeal exports to Mexico. Mexico can resource both from South America. SH tested 200 DMA 10.76 earlier this week on new capital buying. Soybean open interest is up 60,000 contracts since January. SH was near 9.50. Much of the increase was due to increase tech buying, China buying US soybean and farmer selling. Closes support is 10.34. Talk of rains next week in C Argentina could offer resistance to futures. Argentina lowered their soybean crop rating due to heat and dryness. Board crush margins are up due to higher soyoil futures. Soyoil supported by potential drop in Canada canola oil export to US. US Dec crush is est at 217.6 mil bu vs 204.3 ly.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.59. KWH is near 5.80. KWH is near 6.15. Wheat open interest dropped on Wednesday. Since Sep, 2024 OI has increased 130,000 contracts. WH was near 6.39 last September. WH is above 20 and 50 DMA. Resistance is near 100 DMA near 5.72. Lower corn futures, higher US Dollar offered resistance. Key is north hemisphere 2025 weather and global import demand.
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