CORN
Corn futures are higher and near 4.85. Rally remains tech related and supported by increase demand for US corn. Delay in Brazil corn planting is also supportive. USDA is estimating World 2024/2025 corn crop at 1,214.35 mmt vs 1,230.0 ly. The drop is due to USDA lowering Jan est of the US crop. US crop is now 377.6 mmt vs 389.6 ly. USDA est Brazil crop at 127.0 mmt vs 122.0 ly. They also est Argentina at 51.0 vs 50.0 ly and Ukraine at 26.5 vs 32.5 ly. China crop is est at 294.9 mmt vs 288.8 ly. Of the total World end stocks of 293.3, China is 206.1. Trump is talking about an across the board 2.5 pct tariff that could increase over time. Newly approved US Sec of Treasury is in agreement with the new tariff that could be imposed as early as this weekend. Grain trade trying to digest the impact of this new tariff.

SOYBEANS
Soybean futures are lower and near 10.45. SH is back below 10.50 with key support near 10.21. BOH is between 43 support and 48 resistance but a House bill that would repeal the 45Z clean air fuel tax rebate could cause slowing or shuttering of bio and renewable diesel production. Soyoil futures could struggle to rally under this new environment. USDA is estimating World 2024/2025 soybean crop at 424.2 mmt vs 394.9 ly. The increase is due to higher est of the Brazil crop. US crop is now 118.8 mmt vs 113.2 ly. USDA est Brazil crop at 169.0 mmt vs 153.0 ly. They also est Argentina at 52.0 vs 48.2 ly. Total imports are est at 179.2 mmt of which China is est at 109.0 mmt vs 112.0 ly. Some fear China imports could drop below 100 mmt.

WHEAT
WH is near 5.45 and just off session high. WH is back above 5.40 on tech short covering. USDA is estimating World 2024/2025 wheat crop at 793.2 mmt vs 791.0 ly. US crop is now 53.6 mmt vs 49.1 ly. USDA est EU crop at 121.3 mmt vs 135.1 ly. They also est Russia at 81.5 vs 91.5 ly. China is est at 140.1 vs 136.5 ly and India at 113.3 vs 110.5 ly.

>>See more market commentary here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2024
November 15, 2024