CORN
Prices were $.04-$.07 higher today led by old crop. Mch-25 pushed above $4.90 into a fresh 8 month high. Despite the strength nearby spreads did weaken. US/Chinese tensions appear to be easing, lowering the risk of another trade war and possibly resulting in a trade agreement. AgRural est. Brazil’s 2nd corn crop is less than 1% planted, vs. 5% YA. The 1st crop is 4% harvested, vs. 8% YA. Export inspections at 61 mil. bu. were above expectations and MY high. YTD inspections at 758 mil. are up 31% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 7%. Japan took 18 mil. bu., Mexico 13 mil. while Korea took 11 mil. EU 24/25 imports as of Jan. 19th at 11.06 mmt are up 4.4% over YA. Last week MM’s bought nearly 39k contracts of corn while index funds added nearly 40K. I’d guess the MM long position has now swelled to over 315k, which if realized would be the largest since May-22. The index long position in corn at just over 431k is the largest since June-22. Chinese customs data showed they only imported 340k mt of corn in Dec-24, down 93% YOY while bringing cumulative imports in 2024 to 13.64 mmt, down 50% from 2023. Argentine weather seems to be taking a turn for the better however a long ways from realizing the USDA forecast of 51 mmt.

SOYBEANS
A late surge enabled bean oil prices to close higher allowing the entire complex to finish in the green. Beans surged late closing $.22-$.33 higher, meal was up $12-$14, while oil was steady to 10 higher. Still no word out of Team Trump on the status of 45Z. Spreads across the complex have firmed. Mch-25 beans surged above LW’s high, posting its highest close in 3 ½ months. Next resistance is at the last Sept-24 high at $11.00. Mch-25 meal also surged late closing above its 100 day MA at $310.30. Next resistance is the Jan-25 high at $321.60. Mch-25 oil held support above $.45 with resistance at $.47. Scattered rains brought relief to central Argentina and southern Brazil over the weekend. Missing out on rains however was central and southern Buenos Aires in EC Argentina. More rains are needed to improve crop prospects. Export inspections at 36 mil. bu. were below expectations. YTD inspections at 1.187 bil. are up 21% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 8%. China took just over 18 mil. AgRural est. Brazilian harvest at only 1.7% as of late last week, down from 6% YA and the lowest in 4 years. Last week MM’s bought over 63K contracts of beans, flipping their net position around to net long nearly 35k contracts, their first long position since Dec-23. MM’s were net buyers of nearly 40k bean oil while selling 5k bean meal. Index funds were net buyers of over 60k contracts across the soybean complex. Abiove raised their Brazilian production forecast 3 mmt to 171.7 mmt, vs. the USDA’s est. of 169 mmt. They also raised their export forecast 1.7 mmt to 106.1 mmt.

WHEAT
Prices surged $.20-$.27 across the 3 classes today, likely due to short covering given the uncertainty over US winter production along with the plunge in the US $$$. Frigid temperatures and lack of snow cover across much of the US plain states likely caused some damage to the US winter wheat. Lows from 5-10 degrees below zero slid as far south as the KS/OK border. Its impact on yields however not likely to be known for weeks. Chicago Mch-25 surged thru its 50 day MA jumping out to a 1 month high. The rally in Mch-25 KC was capped at its 100 day MA at $5.76 ¾ however jumped out to a 2 month high. Next resistance for Mch-25 MGEX is the December high at $6.11 ¼. Export inspections at 10 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD inspections at 488 mil. are up 24% from YA, vs. the USDA of up 20%. Last week MM’s were net sellers of nearly 13k contracts across all 3 classes extending their combined short position to over 160k, the largest since April-24. Egypt’s new state buyer, Mostakbal Misr, reportedly bought a large volume of Russian wheat for Jan/Feb shipment. Yesterday SovEcon reported Russia exported only 390k mt of wheat LW, down from 520k the previous week. EU 24/25 soft wheat exports as of Jan. 19th at 11.74 mmt are down 36.5% YOY.

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