Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybean ended lower. SH ended near 13.61. Range was 13.49-13.68. Argentina, S Brazil and Paraguay was hot and mostly dry over the holiday weekend. Rains are forecasted for the dry areas of Argentina over the next 10 days. Supply bears feel these rains are negative. Parts of Paraguay and S Brazil may miss these rains. Long range maps suggest after the rains Argentina could turn dry again. Weekly US soybean exports were 63 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 1,228 vs 1,596 last year. China picked up exports. Talk of higher China hog production offers support. Demand bulls feel soybean and soyoil prices are too low. US NOPA soybean crush was a record 186.4 mil vs 179.4 in Nov and 183.1 ly. Soyoil futures have turned higher following higher palmoil prices.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CH is near 5.99. Todays range was 5.88-6.00. Early selling was linked to funds reducing net corn longs due to increase chances for needed rains in Argentina. There is a wide spread between private estimates if South America corn production and recent USDA estimate. Private estimates of the Brazil crop range is 110-115 mmt vs USDA 115. Estimates for the Argentina corn crop is 45-54 mmt vs USDA 54. Corn may be stuck between talk of higher US demand and crop saving rains in Argentina. There is talk of increase demand for US corn exports. One group increased their corn export demand to 2,680 mil bu vs USDA 2,425. Weekly US corn exports were 47 mil bu. Season to date exports are 602 vs 688 last year. Cold weather and increase covid cases has slowed corn movement to the gulf at a time of increase demand. CH found support near 5.85 and tested 6.00 resistance. 6.17 is key resistance.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded sharply higher. Tension between US and Russia and Russia and Ukraine may have triggered some fund short covering. Some feel USDA may be too low on World wheat trade and too high in World Wheat supply. Matif wheat futures firmed after trading lower the last 3 weeks due to drop in export demand for EU wheat. It remains dry across N Africa. Rains should begin to fall in Feb. Our weather guy still looks for dry US south plains spring weather and possibly dry US south plains and Russia summer weather. KWH found support near 7.50. Next resistance is 7.79. Talk of drier US south plains spring weather could send prices higher. Weekly US wheat exports were near 13.5 mil bu. Season to date exports are 470 versus 572 last year. US HRW is becoming more competitive versus Russia.
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