Written Commentary
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
CORN
Today’s USDA data bullish for corn prices
- US 2024 production slashed 276 mil. bu. to 14.867 bil. 140 mil. below expectations
- Yield down nearly 4 bpa to 179.3 bpa. Harvested acres up 186k
- Dec 1st stocks at 12.074 bil. down 75 mil. from expectations
- US 2024/25 ending stocks down to 1.540 bil. 135 mil. below expectations despite lower usage.
- Feed usage was cut 50 mil. bu. while exports down 25 mil.
- Farm Price only raised $.15 to $4.25
- Yields down 11 bpa in IN, 9 in KS and MN, 8 OH, 7 WI, 6 NE, 2 IA and SD
- China imports cut 1 mmt to 13 mmt
- Brazil’s domestic usage (ethanol) up 2 mmt to 887.5 mmt. Exports down 1 mmt
SOYBEANS
Today’s USDA data bullish for soybean and bean oil prices
- US 2024 production down another 95 mil. bu. to 4.366 bil. 85 mil. below expectations
- Yield cut 1 bpa to 50.7 bpa. Harvested acres down 221k
- IN, KS, TN yields all down 3 bpa
- MI, SD, NE, OH down 2 bpa
- Dec 1st stocks at 3.10 bil. bu. up 100 mil. from YA, down 130 from expectations
- US 2024/25 stocks down to 380 mil. 80 mil. below expectations
- Bean oil exports up another 500 mil. lbs. to 1.6 bil. Usage for biofuels down 400 mil.
- Usage unchanged at 4.349 bil.
- farm price unchanged at $10.20 bu.
- Spot board crush margins rebounded $.03 to $1.32 ½ bu.
- Bean oil PV surged to 2 month high to 43.3%
WHEAT
Today’s data was neutral to bearish for wheat
- US ending stocks little changed at 798 mil. bu. in line with expectations
- Dec 1st stocks at 1.570 bil. up 150 from YA however in line with expectations
- Winter wheat acres at 34.1 mil. were up 725 mil. from YA vs. expectations of unchanged.
- HRW acres up 200k to 34.1 mil., SRW up 340k to 6.44 mil. white up 140k to 3.64 mil.
- Russian exports cut 1 mmt to 46 mmt, Ukraine exports down .50 mmt to 16 mmt.
- New contract low for spot Mch-25 Chicago
Charts provided by QST.
>>See more market commentary here.
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