Ag Market View for Feb 7.23
The soybean complex closed mixed. Old crop soybeans futures finished down $.03 – $.06, while deferred contracts were steady higher. Mch-23 held last week’s low at $15.10 ¾. Soybean meal closed down $4 – $8, while soybean oil finished up 120 – 160 in sympathy with higher energy prices. The average trade guess for US soybean ending stocks is unchanged at 210 mil. bu. Range of guesses is 175 – 230 mil. Traders expect Argentine soybean production to be cut 3 – 4 mt, down from USDA 52 mt est. in Jan-23. No expected change for Brazil this month. Dr. Micheal Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soybean forecast 1 mmt to 38 mmt. No change to Brazil. Conab estimates Brazilian harvest has reached 9%, vs. 17% YA. Stats Canada reports soybean stocks as of Dec 31st at 3.654 mmt, up 14% from YA. Canola stocks surged 29% to 11.36 mmt, however were below expectations of 11.7 mmt. EU 2022/23 soybean imports have reached 6.45 mt as of Feb 5th, down 19% from YA. US soybean census exports from Dec-22 totaled 305 mil. bu. down from 355 mil. in Nov-22 however above the 298 mil. in Dec-21. In the first 4 months of the 2022/23 MY exports have reached 1.097 bil. bu. down 5% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 8%. To reach the USDA export forecast of 1.990 bil. bu. sales Jan thru Aug will need to reach 893 mil. bu., just below the 5 year average 906 mil. Achieving this however would require renewed demand from China as they reopen from Covid restrictions.
Prices closed $.03 – $.05 lower as at midday. Mch-23 experienced another inside trading day however late day selling pressured the spot contract back to support at its 100 day MA of $6.74 ¼. Weather forecasts for Argentina remain hot/dry thru late this weekend. Rains are still expected to arrive by Sunday lasting thru the middle of the following week, however coverage and totals have been reduced. By Tues .50” – 1.50” expected before another stretch of warm dry weather lasts into the last week of Feb. Scattered rains in Northern Brazil will cause modest harvest delays. Week 2 of the forecast provides widespread soaking rains to drought areas of RGDS in southern Brazil. Stats Canada reports corn stocks as of Dec 31st at 11.5 mmt, up 3% from YA. Barley stocks at 5.1 mmt were up 61% from YA, and just above expectations of 4.5 mmt. EU corn imports as of Feb 5th have reached 16.7 mt, up 69% from YA. US corn stocks are expected to increase 25 mil. bu. in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report, likely due to lower exports. Traders expect Argentine corn production to be cut 3 – 4 mt, down from USDA 48 mt est. in Jan-23. No expected changes for Brazil just yet. Conab estimates Brazil’s 1st corn harvest has reached 9%, vsl 15% YA. The 2nd corn crop plantings have reached 11%, vs. 22% YA. US corn census exports from Dec-22 totaled 145 mil. bu. up from 96 mil. in Nov-22 however well below the 196 mil. in Dec-21. In the first 4 months of the 2022/23 MY exports have reached 426 mil. bu. down 32% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 22%. To reach the USDA export forecast of 1.925 bil. bu. sales Jan thru Aug will need to reach 1.499 bil. well below the 5 year average of 1.720 bil. While pace analysis suggests the current export forecast is too high, I suspect the USDA will hold off a month before making further cuts to see if the recent uptick is sales continues, and if so for how long. It’ll also allows the opportunity to monitor planting process for Brazil’s 2nd crop.
Prices closed mixed as all 3 classes experienced 2 sided trade. KC closed up $.05 – $.10, while Chicago and MGEX were within $.01 of unchanged. Forecasts for limited precipitation for the US southern plains is supporting KC wheat. Mch-23 KC continues to consolidate between its 50 and 100 day MA. US ending stocks are expected to increase roughly 10 mil. bu. on Wed. to 575 mil. bu. Stats Canada reports all wheat stocks as of Dec 31st at 22.3 mmt, up 33% from YA, however in line with expectations. Durum stocks at 3.7 mmt were slightly below expectations of 3.9 mmt. EU wheat imports have reached 19.1 mmt up 7% from YA. US wheat census exports from Dec-22 totaled only 40 mil. bu. down from 50 mil. in Nov-22 and below the 51 mil. in Dec-21. In the first 7 months of the 2022/23 MY exports have reached 462 mil. bu. down 4% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 3%. Census exports are running 23 mil. bu. above inspections thru the end of Dec-22.
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