Ag Market View for Feb 5
Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and corn ended lower. Wheat traded higher.US Dollar was lower. US stocks were higher. Crude was higher. Gold was higher. US stimulus is helping US stocks. Vaccines are helping Crude and stocks. Higher US debt is weighing on US Dollar.
US soybean futures ended lower. For the first week in Feb, soybean futures were down 22 cents, soymeal down $6 and soyoil down 148 points. Good weekly US soybean export sales, talk of tighter US soybean balance sheet and delays in Brazil soybean vessel loadings failed to attract new buying. Fact China may be slowing new old crop soybean buying and is now focusing on Brazil and new crop helped SX21 gain on SH. Farm Futures magazine surveyed 806 farmers and estimated US 2021 soybean acres near 84.5. Most look soybean acres near 90.0. Stats Canada estimated Dec 31 canola stocks near 12.0 with 10.3 on farm. Stocks were below expectations. Next USDA report is Feb 9. Trade estimates US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 123 mil bu versus USDA 140. Trade estimates Argentina soybean crop near 47.6 mmt versus USDA 48.0. Brazil crop is estimated near 132.4 versus USDA 133.0.
Corn futures ended mixed. CH was down 1 cent while CZ21 was unchanged. For the week CH was down 12 cents. Record US weekly corn export sales, Talk of tighter US 2020/21 corn balance sheet and late Brazil corn plantings failed to attract new buying. Funds remain large corn longs. Question is will they hold those longs after the USDA report, into South America harvest and into US spring planting season. Farm Futures magazine surveyed 806 farmers and estimated US 2021 corn acres near 94.7 million. Most look corn acres near 93.0. Stats Canada estimated Dec 31 barley stocks near 5.7 with 5.2 in farm. Stocks were below expectations. Next USDA report is Feb 9. Trade estimates US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,392 mil bu versus USDA 1,552. Pro Farmer estimates US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,350. They estimate 2021 US corn acres at 93.0, yield at 179 which would produce a crop near 15,300 mil bu. They estimate total demand near 15,000 which suggest a carryout near 1,700. Trade estimates Argentina corn crop near 47.0 mmt versus USDA 47.5. Brazil crop is estimated near 108.4 versus USDA 109.0.
Wheat futures ended higher. Lower US Dollar may have offered support. WH Was down 17 cents this week. This linked to uncertainty over new Russia export policy and lower Russia wheat prices. Lower Russia wheat prices due to increase farmer selling before export taxes or new policy raises export prices and lowers exports. EU wheat export pace should slow. Farm Futures magazine surveyed 806 farmers and estimated US 2021 wheat acres near 46.0 with spring acres near 12.6. Most estimate wheat acres near 45.0. Stats Canada estimated Dec 31 wheat stocks at 24.8 with 21.0 on farm. Stocks were below expectations. Next USDA report is Feb 9. Trade estimates US 2020/21 wheat carryout near 834 mil bu versus USDA 836. Trade also estimates World wheat carryout near 312.8 mmt versus USDA 313.1.
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