Ag Market View for Dec 6.22
Soybeans and soymeal ended higher. Soyoil futures continue to slide lower. There was talk that dryness in Argentina could lower their soybean crop. USDA estimates their crop at 49.5 mmt. One crop scout is near 48.0 mmt. There was talk that one large Argentina Coop was concern that the crop could drop to 42 mmt. Bears feel that a rain will quickly send soybean and soymeal futures lower. Crop scout estimated Brazil soybean crop at 151.0 mmt vs USDA 152.0. SH had a range of 14.44-14.77. SH is back near November highs. USDA did announced 264 mt US soybeans to China and 240 mt US soybeans to unknown. Today’s price action would raise talk that China may be buying more US soybean but confirmation is lacking. US equites and Crude continue to slide lower. In part due to talk wage Inflation could force US Fed to increase rates and concern global economies, including US and China, could slow into a recession. Trade estimates US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 238 mil bu vs USDA 220.
Corn futures limped lower and ended below 6.40. Fund long liquidation and new technical sell signals weighed on futures. US export basis continues to trend lower on continued slow US corn export demand. Dry weather has some looking for Argentina corn crop near 48 mmt vs USDA 55.0.There was also talk that Brazil export capacity may be full and some corn export business may switch to US. US cash feeder basis remains strong but there is talk of higher wheat feeding. Crusher basis also not as strong due to drop in gas demand. Seasonal slowdown in driving and talk EV could reduce ethanol demand could show additional increase in ethanol stocks. Same crop scout estimate Brazil corn crop near 125.5 mmt vs USDA 126.0. Normally USDA makes little changes in their December Supply and Demand report due Friday. Trade est US 2022/23 corn carryout at 1,237 mil bu vs USDA 1,182. Range of guesses is 1,182 to 1,330. Trade also estimates World end stocks at 300.8 mmt vs USDA 300.7 and 307.7 Ly Key remains size of South America crops and Black Sea exports. USDA est Ukraine and Russia exports at 20 mmt vs 31 last year. USDA est total global corn trade near 182 mmt vs 202 ly.
Wheat futures ended lower. Matif wheat also fell for the 4th straight day and hitting levels not seen since the first week of March. Russia sold 1 mmt to Pakistan. Severe cold in S Russia is still set to moderate Sunday. Crops will still have had 10 days of -20°C lows with no snow and that may have done some damage to late planted wheat. Old crop Russia wheat is still estimated at 100 mmt vs USDA 91 and exports should exceed USDA 42. Normally USDA makes little changes In their December Supply and Demand report due Friday. Trade est US 2022/23 wheat carryout at 576 mil bu vs USDA 571. Trade also estimates World end stocks at 267.4 mmt vs USDA 267.8 and 276.3 ly Key remains size of Russia exports and World north hemisphere crop size. WH is making new lows for 2022
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