Ag Market View for Dec 6.22

SOYBEANS

Soybeans and soymeal ended higher. Soyoil futures continue to slide lower. There was talk that dryness in Argentina could lower their soybean crop. USDA estimates their crop at 49.5 mmt. One crop scout is near 48.0 mmt. There was talk that one large Argentina Coop was concern that the crop could drop to 42 mmt. Bears feel that a rain will quickly send  soybean and soymeal futures lower. Crop scout estimated Brazil soybean crop at 151.0 mmt vs USDA 152.0. SH had a range of 14.44-14.77. SH is back near November highs. USDA did announced 264 mt US soybeans to China and 240 mt US soybeans to unknown. Today’s price action would raise talk that China may be buying more US soybean but confirmation is lacking. US equites and Crude continue to slide lower. In part due to talk wage Inflation could force US Fed to increase rates and concern global economies, including US and China, could slow into a recession. Trade estimates US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 238 mil bu vs USDA 220.

Rural farm scene

CORN

Corn futures limped lower and ended below 6.40. Fund long liquidation and new technical sell signals weighed on futures. US export basis continues to trend lower on continued slow US corn export demand. Dry weather has some looking for Argentina corn crop near 48 mmt vs USDA 55.0.There was also talk that Brazil export capacity may be full and some corn export business may switch to US. US cash feeder basis remains strong but there is talk of higher wheat feeding. Crusher basis also not as strong due to drop in gas demand. Seasonal slowdown in driving and talk EV could reduce ethanol demand could show additional increase in ethanol stocks. Same crop scout estimate Brazil corn crop near 125.5 mmt vs USDA 126.0. Normally USDA makes little changes in their December Supply and Demand report due Friday. Trade est US 2022/23 corn carryout at 1,237 mil bu vs USDA 1,182. Range of guesses is 1,182 to 1,330. Trade also estimates World end stocks at 300.8 mmt vs USDA 300.7 and 307.7 Ly Key remains size of South America crops and Black Sea exports. USDA est Ukraine and Russia exports at 20 mmt vs 31 last year. USDA est total global corn trade near 182 mmt vs 202 ly.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended lower. Matif wheat also fell for the 4th straight day and hitting levels not seen since the first week of March. Russia sold 1 mmt to Pakistan. Severe cold in S Russia is still set to moderate Sunday. Crops will still have had 10 days of -20°C lows with no snow and that may have done some damage to late planted wheat. Old crop Russia wheat is still estimated at 100 mmt vs USDA 91 and exports should exceed USDA 42. Normally USDA makes little changes In their December Supply and Demand report due Friday. Trade est US 2022/23 wheat carryout at 576 mil bu vs USDA 571. Trade also estimates World end stocks at 267.4 mmt vs USDA 267.8 and 276.3 ly Key remains size of Russia  exports and World north hemisphere crop size. WH is making new lows for 2022

See more market commentary here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now