Ag Market View for Dec 31.24

CORN

Prices were $.04-$.06 higher closing near session highs while also carving out a fresh 6 month high in late trade.  Spreads were little changed.  Next resistance for Mch-25 is $4.68, the 68% retracement from the Spring high to the August low.  In the week ended Tues. Dec. 24th money managers were net buyers of 1,532 contracts of corn while the index funds were net sellers of 5,962 contracts.  The EIA will release their weekly ethanol production data on Thursday.  After the close on Thursday the USDA will provide census grain crush data for the month of November which is expected to be a record high.  And finally export sales will be pushed back until Friday.

QST Corn futures chart on 12.31.24

SOYBEANS

Prices were higher across the complex lead by soybeans which were up $.14-$.16.  In the products meal was $3-$5 higher while oil was steady to up 5.  Mch-25 beans closed above the $10 level and 50day MA, while also trading above the December high at $10.08 ¼.  Mch-25 oil stalled after challenging yesterday’s high.  Next resistance is LW’s high at 40.93.  Mch-25 meal carved out a fresh 2 month high.  Deliveries against Jan-25 meal were huge at 1,116 contracts.  Soybean and meal deliveries at 109 and 425 contracts respectively were both in line with expectations.  Only lite, scattered showers are expected across central and EC Argentina and southern Brazil thru the first third of January.  Lite to moderate crop stress is likely as temperatures warm to above normal readings.  Showers will be needed by mid-Jan. to prevent more severe crop stress.  Frequent rain activity will continue for most of Brazil’s central and northern growing regions.  Last week MM’s were net sellers of 7,400 contracts of meal, 22,200 oil while buyers of 8,369 contracts of soybeans.  The MM short position in soybean meal has swelled to a record 96,371 contracts.  In the Monthly Biofuel Capacity and Feedstock Update the EIA reports soybean oil usage in biofuel production surged 14% in Oct-24 to 1.227 bil. lbs. and was up 15.5% from Oct-23.  This was the 3rd highest monthly usage ever.  Combined Biodiesel and Renewable diesel production rose 4.1% to 460 mil. gallons, the 2nd highest ever only behind the 464 mil. gallons produced in June-24.  Combined capacity was unchanged at 6.575 bil. gallons annually.

QST soybean futures chart on 12.31.24

WHEAT

A late surge enable prices to close $.01-$.02 higher across all 3 classes.  There are better prospects for beneficial rains across the Black Sea region thru the first week of January.  In the US precipitation over the next week will favor the central and eastern Midwest.  Little moisture is offered for the NC Midwest, WCB and plain states.  Temperatures will quickly shift to a below normal pattern for the New Year.  Last week MM’s were net sellers of just over 7.6k contracts in Chicago, nearly 1.9k in KC while net buyers of 35 contracts of MGEX futures.  The combined short position across the 3 classes of wheat has swelled to nearly 157k contracts, the largest in 8 months.

QST wheat futures chart 12.31.24

Charts provided by The Hightower Report.

 

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