Ag Market View for Dec 30.22
Soybean prices surged to new 6-month highs this morning with nearby contracts up over $.20 at their peak. Prices pulled back with old crop futures settling $.05 – $.10 higher, while new crop contracts closed up $.01 – $.02. Mch-23 soybeans closed at $15.24, up $.39 ½ for the week. Mch-23 soybean meal surged to new contract highs this AM closing at $471.00 up $19.70 for the week. Mch-23 soybean oil plunged 230 points closing at 64.07 down 58 points for the week. There were no deliveries against Jan-23 soybeans or soybean meal. Soybean oil deliveries totaled 779 contracts put out by JP Morgan. Soybean sales last week reached 26 mil. bu., slightly below expectations of 30 – 40 mil. YTD commitments at 1.584 bil. bu. are up 4% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 5%. In addition the USDA announced the sale of 186k tons (7 mil. bu.) of soybeans to an unknown buyer. Soybean meal sales at 264k tons were in line with expectations. YTD commitments are up less than 1% from YA, in line with the USDA forecast. Soybean oil sales were 5k tons. Commitments are down 92% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 38%. The BAGE reports that soybean plantings have reached 72%, up from 61% LW however down from the 5-year average of 86%. G/E ratings slipped to 10% from 12% LW. Poor/VP rose 3% to 28%. They went on to state that if rains do not arrive soon soybean acreage could fall 3%, or 500k hectares, from the current estimate of 16.7 mil. HA.
Weekend forecasts added rain for Argentina in the areas of Cordoba and northern Bueno Aires. Accumulations of 1.00” – 1.50” are expected by Monday before a hot/dry pattern sets up for the following week to 10 days. The midday GFS model increased chances for beneficial rains toward the end of the 2 week period. Confidence is the forecast that far out is not high. In the short term the moisture will be welcome however still appears to fall far short of easing Argentine and Southern Brazil drought concerns. Conditions in north and central Brazil remain very favorable. Mch-23 corn prices surged to new 8 week highs this AM before pulling back and trading both sides of unchanged. Mch-23 closed at $6.78 ½ down $.01 however up $.12 ¼ for the week. Corn exports at 31 mil. bu. were in line with expectations of 25 – 35 mil. YTD commitments at 843 mil. bu. are down 47% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. The BAGE reports Argentine corn plantings advanced 11% to 63% complete, however below the 71% from YA and the 5-year average of 78%. 15% of the crop is G/E, unchanged from the previous week, however 28% is poor/VP up from 26% last week.
All 3 wheat classes closed out 2022 with solid gains. Mch-23 Chicago made a new high for the month, however stopped just below $8 with today high at $7.99. Mch-23 closed at $7.92 up $.16 for the week. The Mch-23 KC rally stopped just short of its weekly high of $8.94 ¾. Mch-23 KC closed at $8.88 up $.13 ¼ for the week. Mch-23 MGEX reversed yesterday’s selloff closing at $9.38 ¾ up $.07 for the week. Export sales at 18 mil. bu. were at the upper end of expectations of 10 – 18 mil. YTD commitments at 548 mil. bu. are down 6% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 3%. BAGE reports Argentine wheat harvest advanced 13% to 91% complete. They maintained their production forecast of 12.4 mt, very near the USDA forecast of 12.5 mt. Rosstat issued a Russia wheat production forecast of 102.65 mt, well above the USDA forecast of 91 mt. Earlier in the week SovEcon raised their Russian wheat production to 101.2 mt. Today they raised their Russian export forecast to 44.1 mt, just above the USDA forecast of 43.0 mt.
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