Ag Market View for Dec 27.24

CORN

Last Friday in 2024. 2024 started with increase US rates but economy turned stronger. 2025 starts with tariffs but US economy still strong. Corn futures ended unch and near 4.53. CH has now traded over the 200 DMA. Corn open interest dropped to 1,518 thousand contract after Dec contract expired. Open interest has rallied back to near 1,631 thousand. Strong demand for US corn and drier Argentina forecast mat be triggering new buying. Some could see USDA lowering US corn carryout in the January report. Weekly US export sales were 1,710 mt. Total commit is near 38.0 mmt vs 29.4 ly. USDA goal is 62.8 mmt vs 58.2 ly. Colombia, Japan, S Korea and Mexico were best buyers.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures ended lower and near 9.90. Word that Illinois soybean processing plant that was closed due to fire was back running offered resistance. Soybean open interest has dropped to 848 thousand. Markets are in a thin choppy trade as many countries are on holiday. Soybean traders are likely to focus on Argentina, as Brazil is about to start harvesting, Weekly US export sales were 978 mt. Total commit is near 39.7 mmt vs 36.1ly. USDA goal is 49.6 mmt vs 46.1 ly. China, Spain and Egypt were best buyers. China total commit is near 18.2 mmt. Brazil weather remains favorable. Argentina forecast is drier over next 2 weeks with temps warming. Long rage maps suggest rains return to Argentina.

WHEAT

WH is near 5.47. Funds could be covering shorts near yearend. Wheat open interest dropped to 413 thousand on Dec liquidation. Open increase has increased back to 463 thousand. The global supply outlook is still tight with higher prices expected over time. Russia data showed the country’s 2024 wheat crop totaled 82 mmt. The largest producing area’s crop was down 30% from the prior year after spring frosts were followed by a summer drought. Weekly US export sales were 612 mt. Total commit is near 16.7 mmt vs 15.1ly. USDA goal is 23.1 mmt vs 19.2 ly

Charts provided by The Hightower Report.

 

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