Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
CORN
Corn futures ended unch and near 4.48. China corn futures were lower and lowest level since April, 2020. China interest in corn imports is negligible. China farmer margins are negative. There is some talk Russia may be trying to increase grain export to China. Managed funds are large net long futures. Some feel increase in nearby US corn demand has held futures near resistance to increase cash into demand pipeline. Brazil weather remain favorable for crop. USDA estimates Brazil 2025 crop at 127.0 mmt vs 122.0 last year. They estimate Argentina at 51.0 mmt vs 50.0 last year. Parts of Argentina saw rains overnight.CH-CK spread has also firmed during rally as pipeline needs increase
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended higher and near 9.79. Dalian soybean futures are lowest since April, 2020. Soybean open interest has dropped on Jan futures liquidation. Fund short covering has helped support prices. Futures have rallied on talk Sino Grain may have bought 1.2 mmt US soybean over the last 2 weeks. Some say that this may be closer to 500 mt and political buying that could be cancelled if Trump imposes additional tariffs on China imports. There were no new US soybean sales announced today. Brazil is expected to see normal weather over the next 2 weeks. USDA estimates Brazil soybean crop near 169.0 mmt vs 153.0 last year. They estimate Argentina at 52.0 mmt vs 48.2 last year. SH-SK spread has firmed.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower with WH near 5.34. EU wheat futures were lower while Russia were higher. World weather remains mostly favorable for 2025 North Hemisphere wheat crops. Higher Argentina and Australia supply could help offset talk of lower Russia exports and lower EU quality. Open interest has increased on the recent drop in prices. WH-WK spread is wide at -10. USDA suggest 2024/25 SRW end stocks will drop to 111 mil bu vs 126 ly and HRW stocks increase from 274 mil bu to 370. USDA estimates 2024/25 World crop at 792.4 mmt vs 791.2 ly. Russia is 81.5 mmt vs 91.5 ly, EU 121.3 vs 135.1 ly, Canada 35.0 vs 32.9 ly, Australia 32.0 vs 25.9. Argentina 17.5 vs 15.8 and US 53.6 vs 49.1.
>>See more market commentary here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2024
November 15, 2024
