Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
CORN
Corn futures ended higher and near 4.46. Brazil is expected to see normal weather over the next 2 weeks. Argentina 2 week forecast is drier. USDA announced 150 mt US corn sold to Colombia. In January, USDA will update US and World supply and demand and release Dec 1 stocks and an estimate of final US 2024 production. Some could see USDA increasing US 2024/25 corn exports 100 mil bu. This could drop carryout to 1,638 mil bu. Some estimate US 2025 corn acres at 92.8 mil vs 90.7 this year. A 184.0 yield would suggest a crop of 15,547 vs 15,143 this year.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended higher and near 9.79. Futures are up on talk Sino Grain may have bought 1.2 mmt US soybean over the last 2 weeks. Some say that this may be closer to 500 mt and political buying that could be cancelled if Trump imposes additional tariffs on China imports. Brazil is expected to see normal weather over the next 2 weeks. Argentina 2 week forecast is drier. In January, USDA will update US and World supply and demand and release Dec 1 stocks and an estimate of final US 2024 production. Some could see USDA increasing US 2024/25 crush 50 mil bu but lower exports 50. This could keep carryout at 470 mil bu. Some estimate US 2025 soybean acres at 84.0 mil vs 87.1 this year. A 52.0 yield would suggest a crop of 4,443 vs 4,461 this year.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended slightly higher with WH near 5.34. World weather remains mostly favorable for 2025 North Hemisphere wheat crops. Higher Argentina and Australia supply could help offset talk of lower Russia exports and lower EU quality. In January, USDA will update US and World supply and demand and release Dec 1 stocks and an estimate of final US 2024 production. Most look for USDA keep carryout at 795 mil bu. Some estimate US 2025 wheat acres at 46.3 mil vs 46.1 this year. A 50.5 yield would suggest a crop of 1,928 vs 1,971 this year.
>>See more market commentary here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2024
November 15, 2024
