Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
CORN
Prices were down $.01-$.02 today in 2 sided trade. Early strength in spreads faded, closing near unchanged. Resistance for Mch-25 rests at LW’s high at $4.51 ¼, support at LW’s low at $4.40. The USDA announced the sale of 170.4 mt (6.7 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. France’s Farm Ministry increased their countries 2024 corn production est. 2.6% to 15 mmt. Ukraine’s grain exports are starting to slow. Shipments since July 1st for the 24/25 MY have reached 19.5 mmt, still up 22% from YA, however shipments so far in Dec-24 at only 1.1 mmt are down 60% from the same period YA. Their corn exports account for 8 mmt of the grain shipped, unchanged from YA. EU corn imports as of Dec. 15th have reached 9.17 mmt, up 10% from YA. The Fed. Govt. funding bill is expected to allow the sale of E-15 year round, potentially adding 25-50 mil. bu. of corn usage over the course of a full MY. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production last week ranged from 315 – 318 mil. gallons vs. 316 mil. the previous week.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly lower as soybeans and meal established new contract lows while spot oil reached a 3 month low. Despite beans being down $.05-$.10, spreads rallied. Jan/Mch narrowed to a penny carry, its highest level in 6 months. The lower prices have likely slowed farmer selling forcing the spreads to firm to keep the pipeline full. Meal rebounded off the new lows as prices closed slightly higher. Mch-25 oil sliced thru support at the November low at 41.00, next support is the Sept low at 38.99. Spot board crush margins fell another $.06 to $1.02 per bu. with bean oil PV dipping to 41.4%. Most of the cropland area in SA is expected to remain well watered into year-end as temperatures remain moderate. The southern third of Argentina has experienced a dryer trend that is expected to remain for the next week to 10 days. Some dry pockets and minor crop stress may form. The USDA announced the sales of 187k mt (6.8 mil. bu.) to Spain and 132k mt (4.8 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer.
WHEAT
Prices were $.05-$.10 lower across all 3 classes today. Chicago Mch-25 premium to Mch-25 corn slipped to a new low at $1.01 per bu. Today’s models offer less moisture relief for Eastern Ukraine, Southern Russia and Kazakhstan. Still no threatening cold for this region over the next week to 10 days. Much of the continental US will remain in an above normal temperature pattern thru year end. France’s Farm Ministry forecasts their 2025 soft wheat harvested area will reach 4.51 mil. HA, up nearly 9% from YA. Ukraine’s wheat shipments since July 1st have reached 9.2 mmt, still up 37% from YA. SovEcon lowered their 2025 Russian wheat production forecast 3 mmt to 78.7 mmt, which if verified would be their smallest crop in 4 years. Russian FOB offers at $236/mt are up $1 since the end of last week. Jordan passed on their recent tender for 120k mt of wheat. EU soft wheat exports for 24/25 as of Dec. 15th have reached 10.54 mmt, down 31% from YA.
All charts provided by QST.
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