Ag Market View for Dec 16.24

CORN

Prices are up $.02-$.03 as spreads also firmed.  Resistance for Mch-25 rests at LW’s high at $4.51 ¼, which is a penny below the Nov-24 high.  South American weather remains mostly favorable with a good mix of rain and sunshine thru year end for much of Brazil.  Conditions however are dryer across Argentina.  There are several chances for scattered showers over the next week to 10 days however coverage is expected to favor the central and northern growing areas.  Dry pockets and crop stress may begin to develop over some of the southern growing areas, particularly in Buenos Aires.  Money managers last week were net buyers of nearly 78k contracts, extending their long position to nearly 166k, their largest position since Feb-2023.  Index funds are also holding their largest position in corn since Feb-23 at nearly 346k contracts.  Export inspections at 44.5 mil. bu. were an 11 week high and in line with expectations however below the 52 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the revised USDA export forecast of 2.475 bil. bu.  YTD inspections at 524 mil. are up 31% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%.  Noted buyers were Mexico – 15 mil. and Japan – 8 mil.  AgRural is forecasting Brazilian corn production at 121.3 mmt, well below the USDA est. of 127 mmt.

SOYBEANS

Prices were mixed in choppy 2 sided trade across the complex.  Beans were down $.06-$.10 closing near session lows.  Spreads jumped in the nearby contracts while slightly lower in the deferred.  Meal was steady to $1 higher while oil was down 90.  Mch-25 beans failed to trade above $10 before pulling back.  Support is at its contract low at $9.82 ½.  Mch-25 bean oil closed back below its 100 day MA.  Next support is the Nov-24 low at $.41 lb.  Mch-25 meal continues to consolidate between its contract low at $291 and $300 per ton. Spot board crush margins slipped $.02 to a fresh 6 month low at $1.08 bu. with bean oil PV dipping to 42.1 %.  Export inspections at 62 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and well above the 21 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 1.825 bil. bu.  Last week’s inspections were revised up by just over 4 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 927 mil. up 19% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%.  China took 38 mil. bu.  Last week MM’s were net buyers of nearly 14k beans, 8k bean oil and nearly 900 soybean meal.  AgRural is reporting that the Brazilian soybean crop is nearly 100% planted while forecasting production will reach 171.5 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 169 mmt.  NOPA crush from Nov-24 at 193.2 mil. bu. was a record high for the month however down from 199.94 mil. in Oct-24 and below expectations of nearly 197 mil. bu.  Implied total crush for the month would be roughly 206 mil. bu., down 4.6% from last month’s all-time record at 216 mil., however up from 200 mil. bu. in Nov-23.  Cumulative crush thru the first 3 months of the 24/25 MY would reach nearly 609 mil. bu. up 5.6% from YA, vs. the current USDA est. of up 5.4%.  Bean oil stocks rose to 1.084 bil. up from 1.069 bil. in Oct-24, however were below expectations.     

WHEAT

Prices closed mixed with Chicago steady to $.02 lower KC and MGEX held steady to $.02 higher.  Mch-25 Chicago wheat premium to Mch-25 corn fell to a fresh low today at $1.05 per bu.  Export inspections at 11 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however below the 16 mil. needed per week to reach the revised USDA forecast of 850 mil. bu.  YTD inspections at 424 mil. are up 29% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 20%.  Last week MM’s were net buyers of just over 2,600 Chicago wheat, nearly 2k in KC and just over 1K in MGEX.  Saudi Arabia reportedly purchased 804k mt of hard wheat in their recent tender ranging from $262.50 mt to $269.89 mt CF.  The grain was sourced from Romania, Bulgaria, South America and a few cargoes from Russia.  Shipment is expected between Feb-25 thru April-25.  Russian backed Chechnya leader Kadyrov said he’d work with Syria’s new Govt. leaders to ensure they receive shipments of Russian wheat that were suspended LW over payment and other logistical issues.

All charts provided by QST.

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