Ag Market View for August 5.24

CORN

Prices finished strong closing $.03-$.04 higher and near session highs.  Both Sept-24 and Dec-24 held support above LW’s lows in early trade while establishing an outside day higher on the charts.  The overnight and early session weakness was largely driven by a “risk off” mentality from a slowing global economy fueled by Friday’s weaker than expected US employment report.  The US $$$ index gapped lower, plunging to a 7 month low overnight before recovering to close at about the midpoint of the day’s range.  AgRural estimates Brazil’s 2nd corn crop harvest has reached 95% in the CS region.  Ukraine’s Agrarian Council suggests their countries corn crop could be 6 mmt below YA due to July heat.  The USDA is currently forecasting 2024 production at 27.7 mmt, down from 31 mmt YA.  Last week money managers bought over 23k contracts of corn, reducing their short position to 295k contracts.  Last week index funds sold another 4k contracts cutting their long position in corn to 239k, the smallest since Jan-24.  Corn inspections at 48 mil. bu. were above expectations and above the 42 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 2.225 bil. bu.  YTD inspections are up 36% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 34%.  Largest takers last week were Japan – 21 mil. bu. and Mexico – 10 mil. 

QST Chart Corn 8.5

SOYBEANS

Soybeans and soybean meal surged late closing near session highs with Sept-24 beans establishing a key reversal day.  The price recovery is largely attributed to Chinese interest in US soybeans.  Bean futures were $.12-$.15 better led by old crop.  Meal was $5-$8 higher (Aug-24 down $1) while oil was down 50-60.  A new contract low overnight for Sept-24 oil with next support at $.40 lb.  Sept-24 meal traded above its July high as well as the 50 day MA.  Next resistance is the 100 day MA at $345.20.  After surging last week to their best level in 9 months, spot board crush margins pulled back $.25 bu. today to $2.01 bu. with BO PV falling to a 9 month low at 36.3%.  US weather will feature much cooler readings across the northern half of the Midwest this week with extreme heat limited to the southern plains and delta region.  Precipitation thru mid-week to favor the northern third of the Midwest with better prospects for rain in the WCB by next weekend.  Hurricane Debby will bring heavy rains and flooding to south central and eastern Georgia as well as the Carolina’s this week.  Last week MM’s were net sellers of 15k soybeans, 30k soybean oil while being net buyers of just over 16k soybean meal.  Their net short position across the soybean complex has swelled to over 206k, the largest since April.  Soybean inspections at 10 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however below the 17 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 1.70 bil.  YTD inspections are down 15% from YA, in line with the USDA forecast. Indonesia and Mexico were the largest takers with 3 mil. each.

       

QST Chart Soybeans 8.5

WHEAT

Prices recovered to closed mixed.  Chicago and KC were steady to $.02 higher while MGEX was down $.05-$.08.  Cooler temperatures however not much moisture relief expected for Eastern Ukraine and Southern Russia.  Spring wheat areas of Russia are likely to stay in an above normal rainfall pattern.  Last week MM’s bought less than 1k in KC and MGEX while being net sellers of 2,400 contracts of Chicago wheat.  Last week index funds sold 3k Chicago wheat and 1,800 KC wheat cutting their long positions to 76k and 57k respectively, their smallest position since last winter.  IKAR reports Russian export wheat price at $221/mt FOB at the end of last week, up from $220/mt the previous week.  SovEcon reports Russia exported 1.06 mmt of grain last week, up from 1.0 mmt the previous week.  Wheat shipments made up the vast majority of the sales at 930k mt, vs. only 760k mt the previous week.  Wheat inspections at 16 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and in line with the weekly amount needed to reach the USDA forecast of 825 mil. bu.  Last week’s inspections were revised up by 1 mil. bringing YTD inspections to 130 mil., up 16% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 15%

QST Chart Wheat 8.5

Charts provided by QST Charts. 

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