CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 lower with a new all-time lows in the Sept/Dec spread trading out to a $.26 ¾ carry ahead of FND for the Sept contract this Friday. The USDA announced the sale of 166k mt (6.5 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico and 100k mt (4 mil. bu.) to Colombia. A news wire report claims that Chinese Govt. officials have urged grain importers to purchase less foreign grain claiming to have ample domestic supplies due to weaker demand. Stats Canada forecasts their corn production at 15.23 mmt, just above the pre-report est. of 14.9 mmt and 5% above the USDA est. of 14.5 mmt. Ethanol production slipped to 1,071 tbd last week, down from 1,098 tbd the previous week however up 6.3% from YA. There was 107.6 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.4 mil. bu. per day, above the 14.1 mbd needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.450 bil. bu. MY to date usage has reached 5.352 bil. bu., or 14.95 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.456 bil. bu.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans down $.07-$.10, meal was $3-$6 lower, while oil was 30-65 better. Inside trade for Oct-24 meal with support at the contract low near $296 and resistance at the 50 day MA at $317.20. Oct-24 oil has recovered from lower trade overnight with resistance at this week’s high at 41.59. Spot board crush margins inched up to $1.85 bu. with bean oil PV jumping back above 40%. Soybeans were pressured by better than expected rains overnight across key growing areas of the central Midwest while seemingly shrugging off an announced sale to China. Rains thru the Labor Day holiday weekend are expected to favor IA, MN, W. TX with scattered amounts in the ECB. By the end of the holiday weekend much of the nation’s midsection will be experiencing normal to below normal temperatures. The USDA announced the sale of 264k mt (9.7 mil. bu.) of soybeans to China. Stats Canada forecasts 2024 canola production at 19.5 mmt, well above the 18.33 mmt from YA and just above expectations of 19.2 mmt. They forecast Canadian soybean production at 7.15 mmt, in line with expectations while up from 6.98 mmt YA. Sources in India suggest the Govt. is considering raising vegetable oil import prices in an attempt to support domestic farmers from lower oilseed prices. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 50-90 mil. bu. for soybeans, 100-500k tons of meal and 0-20k tons of oil. After the close of trade on Fri. the EIA will release their monthly biofuel production, capacity and feedstock update.
WHEAT
Prices were $.06-$.10 higher across all 3 classes today building on yesterday’s reversal action. Resistance for Chicago Dec-24 is at LW’s high of $5.60, followed by the 50 day MA at $5.69 ½. Longer term resistance for Dec-24 KC is at the 50 day MA at $5.79. Resistance for Dec-24 MGEX is at $6.16 ¾. Stats Canada est. 2024 all wheat production at 34.4 mmt, was above the 32 mmt harvested YA however below expectations of 35.1 mmt. Spring wheat production at 25.35 mmt was above YA at 24.8 mmt however also below expectations of 26.6 mmt. Germany’s Ag. Ministry projects their 2024 wheat production at 18.8 mmt, down nearly 13% from YA. Their overall grain production is expected to drop 7.2% to 39.4 mmt. The USDA concluded that BioCeres Crop Solutions drought resistant wheat trait doesn’t need further regulation paving the way for the first GM wheat trait into the global market. The US is the 4th country behind Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay to grant clearance. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 10 – 20 mil. bu.
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