Ag Market View for Aug 31.22


Soybean futures ended lower on talk that US 2022 soybean crop could be record high. Traders are also concerned that Brazil 2023 soybean crop could also be record high. Finally, there is some concern that increase tension between US and China, increase China covid lockdowns and slower China economy could reduce their raw material imports including soybeans from US. Some are about to lower US 2022/23 soybean exports to below 2,000 mil bu which would add 150 mil bu to the carryout. US Q4 and Q123 exports could be huge but could drop off once SA harvest begins. Soyoil gained on soymeal. SA soymeal prices are a discount to US.

US Soybean exports chart
US Corn Exports Chart
US Wheat Exports Chart


Corn futures ended lower on some long liquidation at month end and talk futures, spreads and cash basis could drop when harvest starts. Ukraine is offering October corn for export near $253 vs US $323. Corn trying to deal with uncertain Ukraine corn exports, actual US 2022 final corn crop, SA 2023 crops and weather, strong cash basis and lower EU corn supply. Could have been some liquidation of short wheat and long corn spreads. There were no Sep corn deliveries. Weekly US ethanol production was down almost 2 pct from last week but still up 7 pct versus last year. Stocks were down 1 pct from last week and 11 pct from last year. Most feel there may not be a weekly USDA FAS export sales report on Thursday. Still trade estimates that old crop sales may have been -100/300 mt  and new crop 500-800 mt. Margins are still estimated to be positive. USDA estimates World 2022/23 corn trade near 185.6 mmt vs 200.4 last year. US 60.3 vs 62.2, Brazil 47.0 versus 44.5. Argentina 41.0 vs 39.0 and Ukraine 12.5 vs 24.5. EU exports are est near 2.7 vs 5.8 ly and imports near 19.0 mmt vs 16.0 ly.


Wheat futures ended higher on unwinding long corn and short wheat spreads. Weak commodity prices on fears of a slowdown of Global raw material demand and stagflation offers resistance. US HRW export prices are $50/60 dollars per tonne over Germany wheat. US SRW export price is $20/25 dollars per tonne over France. Russia wheat export prices are near $310 vs US SRW $346.  HRW basis is weaker with more railcars being shown to market ahead of corn and soybean harvest and a few millers sitting idle on sideline ahead of long holiday weekend. NSW harvest progressing nicely and yields continue to impress. Early Canada  NWS yields are also better than expected. Wheat futures continue choppy trading with uncertainty on Black Sea exports and fact US exports are still uncompetitive.  Rumors that Russia may not extend the Ukraine corridor export deal when it expires in October offered support. US bakers are 99 pct covered Q3, 60-65 pct Q4 covered and 10 pct covered Q1,23.

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