Ag Market View for Aug 3.22

SOYBEANS

Soybeans ended lower on low volume. Choppy trade. TTrade est US weekly old crop soybean sales near -100/200 mt vs -58 last week and new crop 200-700 vs 748 last week. USDA will update US and World 2021/22 and 2022/23 supply and demand next Friday. Informa will be out Friday. StoneX est US soybean yield near 51.3 vs USDA 51.5. IL and MN, yields are est above ly while IA is below. Some could see US 2021/22 soybean carryout increased 40 mil bu due to lower exports. This could carryover to 2022/23 with carryout est closer to 285 vs USDA 230. USDA announced new US soymeal sales to Poland but no new US soybean sales to China. There was talk that China was again an active buyer of Brazil soybeans. China is paying a premium for nearby soybeans vs US. Some feel Brazil may soon be out of soybeans for export. SU range 13.90-14.20.

China Soybeans
US Corn Yield

CORN

Sep corn futures ended unchanged. So far there is not enough new bullish news to push CU over 6.00. Trade volume remains low. Open interest is slowly trying to increase from season lows.  Managed funds continue to liquidate out of net corn longs due to talk of recession and favorable US Midwest weather. US Midwest could be warm and dry over next 7 days. 8-14 EU model is normal. GFS 8-14 is normal east but warm and dry for west. Trade est US weekly old crop corn sales near 0-300 mt vs 150 last week and new crop 100-400 vs 193 last week. USDA will update US and World 2021/22 and 2022/23 supply and demand next Friday. Informa will be out Friday. StoneX est US corn yield near 176 vs USDA 177. IA, MN, SD yields are est above ly while IL and NE are below. Weekly US ethanol prod was up 3 pct vs ly. Stocks were also up 3 pct from ly. Margins turned lower. Some feel USDA 2021/22 corn carryout could remain near USDA 1,510 mil bu. Some could see US 2022/23 corn carryout to drop near 1,275 if US crop is lower than USDA est and feed use is higher. World 2022/23 corn supply and demand will be up to USDA assessment of Ukraine exports, EU demand for imports and 2023 South America crop size.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended lower. Trade est US weekly wheat export sales near 200-500 mt vs 412 last week. USDA will update US and World 2021/22 and 2022/23 supply and demand next Friday. Most look for an increase in World end stocks due to lower exports. WU ended near 7.63 with a range of 7.52-7.90. Wheat futures volume remains low. WU open interest is slowly increasing. KWU ended near 8.36 with a range of 8.23-8.57. MWU ended near 8.75 with a range of 8.64-8.94. Winter wheat basis depreciation starting to find support as harvest starting to wrap up.  Most will focus on execution Aug/Sep to make room for corn/soybeans in Q4. Spring wheat crop starting off to optimistic start and harvest 30-45 days away in ND.

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