Ag Market View for Aug 3.22


Soybeans ended lower on low volume. Choppy trade. TTrade est US weekly old crop soybean sales near -100/200 mt vs -58 last week and new crop 200-700 vs 748 last week. USDA will update US and World 2021/22 and 2022/23 supply and demand next Friday. Informa will be out Friday. StoneX est US soybean yield near 51.3 vs USDA 51.5. IL and MN, yields are est above ly while IA is below. Some could see US 2021/22 soybean carryout increased 40 mil bu due to lower exports. This could carryover to 2022/23 with carryout est closer to 285 vs USDA 230. USDA announced new US soymeal sales to Poland but no new US soybean sales to China. There was talk that China was again an active buyer of Brazil soybeans. China is paying a premium for nearby soybeans vs US. Some feel Brazil may soon be out of soybeans for export. SU range 13.90-14.20.

China Soybeans
US Corn Yield


Sep corn futures ended unchanged. So far there is not enough new bullish news to push CU over 6.00. Trade volume remains low. Open interest is slowly trying to increase from season lows.  Managed funds continue to liquidate out of net corn longs due to talk of recession and favorable US Midwest weather. US Midwest could be warm and dry over next 7 days. 8-14 EU model is normal. GFS 8-14 is normal east but warm and dry for west. Trade est US weekly old crop corn sales near 0-300 mt vs 150 last week and new crop 100-400 vs 193 last week. USDA will update US and World 2021/22 and 2022/23 supply and demand next Friday. Informa will be out Friday. StoneX est US corn yield near 176 vs USDA 177. IA, MN, SD yields are est above ly while IL and NE are below. Weekly US ethanol prod was up 3 pct vs ly. Stocks were also up 3 pct from ly. Margins turned lower. Some feel USDA 2021/22 corn carryout could remain near USDA 1,510 mil bu. Some could see US 2022/23 corn carryout to drop near 1,275 if US crop is lower than USDA est and feed use is higher. World 2022/23 corn supply and demand will be up to USDA assessment of Ukraine exports, EU demand for imports and 2023 South America crop size.


Wheat futures ended lower. Trade est US weekly wheat export sales near 200-500 mt vs 412 last week. USDA will update US and World 2021/22 and 2022/23 supply and demand next Friday. Most look for an increase in World end stocks due to lower exports. WU ended near 7.63 with a range of 7.52-7.90. Wheat futures volume remains low. WU open interest is slowly increasing. KWU ended near 8.36 with a range of 8.23-8.57. MWU ended near 8.75 with a range of 8.64-8.94. Winter wheat basis depreciation starting to find support as harvest starting to wrap up.  Most will focus on execution Aug/Sep to make room for corn/soybeans in Q4. Spring wheat crop starting off to optimistic start and harvest 30-45 days away in ND.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now