Written Commentary
ADM Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
August 4, 2026
CORN
Prices were mixed and within $.01 of unchanged. Spreads were also mixed and little changed. Dec-26 is building support just below $4.60 while MA resistance is just above $4.70. APK-Inform cut their Ukrainian grain export forecast 3.7 mmt to 39.4 mmt. They lowered their corn production forecast .3 mmt to 29.8, while cutting their export forecast 1 mmt to 24 mmt. France’s corn crop ratings slipped another 3% to 31% G/E, well below the 67% YA. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest has reached 79% vs. 88% YA. The Reuters poll shows traders expect US production to slip 66 mil. bu. to 15.934 bil. Old crop stocks are expected to drop by 21 mil. to 1.999 bil. with new crop stocks down 65 mil. to 1.725 bil. Friday’s CFTC data showed MM’s were net buyers of 13.5k contracts extending their long position to 182k, while index funds were net sellers of 10k contracts. Export inspections at 68.5 mil. bu. above expectations and above the 39 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 3.325 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 3.111 bil. are up 25% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 18 mil., Spain -14 mil. while Japan took 13 mil. The USDA also announced a flash sale of 105k mt (4.2 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed in choppy 2-sided trade with beans up $.01-$.04, meal was down $2-$4 while bean oil was up over $.01 lb. Beans spreads weakened while product spreads were mixed. Nov-26 continues to hold support above its 100-day MA at $11.71 ¼. Sept-26 meal fell to a 5-week low with next support at its June-26 low at $297.80. Sept-26 oil closed just above its 100-day MA while drawing support from sharply higher energy prices. Crush margins were up $.04 ½ at $2.75 per bu. while bean oil PV a full 1% to 53.2%. US weather remains mostly favorable with heavy rains this week stretching from W. SD and NE all the way across to the ECB. Dry to the south however with temperatures holding above to well above normal. There were no flash sales reported today. Chinese leader Xi is expected to visit Washington DC in 7 weeks. China’s Sinograin will auction off another 516k mt of soybeans on Aug. 12th, their 3rd such auction as they look to free up storage ahead of US arrivals. The Reuters poll shows traders expect US production to slip 3 mil. bu. to 4.472 bil. Old crop ending stocks are expected to slip 9 mil. to 321 mil. with new crop stocks down 6 mil. to 304 mil. Money managers were net sellers across the soybean complex in the most recent reporting period selling 29.5k soybeans, 29k bean oil and 11k meal. Their combined long position across the complex is down to 284k, vs. the all-time high in May at 502k. Export inspections at 15 mil. bu. were in line with expectations, brining YTD inspections to 1.461 bil. down 18% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 19%.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.10 lower to $.01 higher. CGO Sept-26 was up $.00 ¾ at $6.40 ½, KC Sept-26 was $.00 ½ lower at $7.13 ½ while MIAX Sept-26 was down $.09 ½ at $6.70. Disappointing day for wheat bulls with markets not able to hold overnight strength fueled by continued disruptions in grain shipments from the Black Sea. Russia continues to target Ukrainian port infrastructure and grain storage in the Odessa region. APK-Inform raised their Ukrainian production forecast .2 mmt to 22.6 mmt while lowering their export forecast to 13.5 mmt, down from 15.3 mmt. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry fears their export terminals may face a massive shortage of grain storage that could reach 11 mmt. The Reuters poll shows traders expect all US wheat production at 1.525 bil. bu. down 11 mil. from July. Winter wheat production is expected to fall 9 mil. bu. to 981 mil. Spring wheat production is expected to slip to 468 mil. down 7 mil. bu. Ending stocks are forecast to drop 7 mil. bu. to 715 mil. Export inspections at 15.5 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and a MY high. YTD inspections at 122 mil. bu. are still down 25% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 17%.
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