Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2025 Results
May 6, 2025
CORN
Prices were mixed ranging from $.01 ½ higher in old crop to $.01 lower in new crop. Spreads were firmer. July-25 finished the week with only slight losses after recovery from a midweek test of its 100 day MA support. Resistance is at this month’s high at $4.97 ½ . The USDA announced the sale of 235k mt (9.3 mil. bu.) to Mexico. 130k mt was for 24/25 MY with 105k mt for new crop 25/26. Mexico’s demand for US corn should remain strong as drought conditions remain across a vast portion of our neighbors to the south. Yesterday the BAGE reported Argentine corn harvest advanced only 2% LW to 30%. They held their production forecast unchanged at 49 mmt, just below the USDA 50 mmt estimate. Japanese press is reporting they are looking to import more US corn as part of recent trade negotiations. Additional trade talks are expected next week. In the past 5 years Japan’s corn imports have ranged from 15-17 mmt with roughly 2/3rd’s coming from the US. Corn acres rose from March to the June acreage report the past 4 years and 17 of the past 25. Look for old crop futures to outperform new crop.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans ranging from down $.03 in old crop to steady in new crop. Meal recovered to close $1-$2 better while oil was 10-35 lower however held sizable gains for the week. Spreads were weaker across the complex. July-25 beans stretched out to fresh 2 month high before pulling back. The 100 day MA support sits right at $10.40. Fresh 2 week low for July-25 meal before recovering. Spot oil futures traded above $.50 for the first time since Dec-23 before pulling back. Spot board crush margins rebounded another $.02 to $1.30 ½ as bean oil PV dipped slightly below 46% coming off a 2 ½ year high. Strong export demand is providing support. Yesterday’s export sales showed YTD commitments at 2.134 bil. lbs. are already up to 93% of the USDA forecast for the 24/25 MY. In all likelihood the USDA forecast at 2.30 bil. lbs. is still 200-300 mil. too low despite recent increases. Indications the Trump administration is close to making a trade deal with India also adds to demand prospects. Still awaiting clarity on US biofuel policies. The back and forth confusion over whether the Trump Administration and China have been holding trade discussions continues. Pres. Trump maintains these talks have been ongoing while Chinese officials at their embassy in Washington DC deny negotiations are taking place for a 2nd consecutive day. Wire services are reporting China has removed their 125% import tariffs on certain “critical needs” from the US including aerospace equipment. The BAGE reports Argentine harvest advanced nearly 10% to 15% complete while holding their production forecast unchanged at 48.6 mmt, just below the USDA 49 mmt estimate.
WHEAT
Prices were within $.02 of unchanged today in choppy 2 sided trade. For the week prices were down between $.15-$.20 bu. Spreads finished the session mixed. With only scattered rains so far this week in the far northern plains, look for spring wheat plantings to remain well above their historical average. The US Midwest will remain in an active weather pattern thru the end of April. Heaviest rains will stretch from the S. plains across the southern Midwest. Moderate rainfall totals for the Northern plains is welcome news for this area as drought conditions have expanded in recent weeks. Despite pleas from Pres. Trump to Russian Pres. Putin to end attacks on Ukraine and negotiate a peace deal, a Russian drone strike overnight killed 3 more civilians, including a child in the city of Pavlohrad. At midday wire services are reporting talks with US special envoy Witkoff and Putin have been constructive. This afternoon Pres. Trump took to Truth Social stating that “work on the overall peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is going smoothly”. This afternoon’s CFTC report will likely show speculators remain heavily short across the 3 classes of wheat with seemingly little fear of a price rally.
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