Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CORN
Prices were steady to $.01 lower while spreads were mixed. Support for May-26 is at LW’s low of $4.38. Dec-26 has 100-day MA support at $4.67 ½. MM’s were heavy sellers of corn LW unloading nearly 50k contracts while reducing their long position to 219k. As of Friday, I would guess it’s closer to only 190k. APK Inform lowered Ukraine’s production forecast to 31.5 mmt and expect exports will reach 25 mmt. Conab will update their Brazilian production forecast tomorrow. The Ave. est. at 140 mmt is up nearly 2 mmt and well above the USDA forecast of 132 mmt. Export inspections at 70 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and above the 62 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 1.978 bil. are up 34% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 23 mil., while Japan, S. Korea, Spain and Columbia all took 7-8 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices turned mostly lower at midday with beans and soybean oil making new lows at the close. Beans were off $.07-$.14, bean oil was down 65 points while meal was steady. May-26 beans rejected trade into fresh 4-week highs overnight. Support is at the 50-day MA at $11.55 ¼. Support for May-26 oil is at LW’s low of 66.22. May-26 meal traded to a fresh 5-month high before backing up. Spot board crush margins are jumped another $.09 to $2.99 bu., the highest since Oct-22, while meal and oil PV’s both sit at 50%. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s were net buyers of 15k contracts of soybean oil extending their record long position to nearly 151k contracts. MM’s were net sellers of 24k contracts of soybeans and just over 6k contracts of meal. While energy/war headlines will drive price volatility, the markets attention will gradually shift toward the US planting season and Pres. Trump’s upcoming trip to China. The US blockade of the Straits of Hormuz along with Chinese weapons sales to Iran will complicate negotiations or potentially threaten the trip entirely. Conab is expected to raise their Brazilian production forecast 1 mmt to 179 mmt, still just below the USDA forecast of 180 mmt. Export inspections at 30 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD inspections at 1.158 bil. are down 25% from YA vs. the revised USDA forecast of down 18%. China took nearly 13 mil. bu. while Egypt took 8 mil.
WHEAT
Prices were $.10-$.13 higher however settled off session highs, drug down by weakness in the soybean complex. CGO July-26 was up $.10 ½ at $5.91 ¼ while KC July-26 was up $.11 ½ at $6.16 ½. The MM long position in SRW wheat (CGO) was short lived as they sold 14k contracts flipping back around to net short 5.6k contracts. APK Inform lowered their Ukraine production forecast in 2026 to 19.9 mmt while cutting their export forecast 1.5 mmt to only 13 mmt. Russia’s Ag. Ministry slashed their export tax 41% to 329/roubles per ton. US export inspections at 12 mil. bu. were in line with expectations, however below the 17 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 773 mil. bu. are up 15% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast up 9%.
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