Ag Market View for Apr 28.22

SOYBEANS

Soybeans ended lower. Talk of slower China buying US soybeans offered resistance. Tighter World vegoil supplies and higher rapeseed oil and sunoil prices continues to help soyoil gain on soymeal. Some doubt prospects of lower soyoil prices until late 2022 if World canola supplies rebound or 2023 if South America soybean supplies increases. Overnight Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil, RSO were higher. Malaysian palmoil was lower. New crop Matif rapeseed futures were higher. Lower Brazil soybean export prices offered resistance to soybean futures. Weekly US soybean export sales were 17 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,115 versus 2,245 ly. USDA goal is 2,115 vs 2,261 ly. Next Key USDA report is May 12 and USDA first US/World 2022/23 Supply and Demand.

CORN

Corn futures ended slightly higher. CN ended near 8.13 with a range near 8.08 to 8.19. July corn has been straight up since the low of 5.12 in Sep,21. Higher ethanol use and strong exports offset a record US 2021 corn yield. Ukraine war and lower South America supplies has helped futures push to new highs. Concern that US 2022 corn crop may be planted late also offered support. Some feel Midwest corn planted after May 10 could see a yield drag from trend. Talk of increase Iowa farmer plantings offered resistance. Despite US Dollar at 20 year highs and corn near all-time highs, US ethanol margins have turned positive which is helping the basis. US corn export sales were 61 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,264 vs 2,666 ly. USDA announce new corn sales to China. Some feel they will continue to buy US corn. USDA US corn export goal is 2,500 versus 2,753 ly. Some feel final exports could reach 2,700 which would drop US 2021/22 carryout to 1,200 vs USDA 1,440. Corn futures also supported by rebound in Crude oil futures. 

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended lower. WN ended near 10.85 with a range of 10.81 to 11.05. WN building a tech flag formation test the uptrend line from April 1 low and April 25 low and downtrend line from March and April high. KWN ended near 11.40 with a range near 11.40 to 11.62. Talk of rains across the dry areas of US HRW area offered resistance. KWN futures is near support line from the March 29 low and 20 DMA near 11.26 the down trend line from the March and April high. MWN ended near 11.91 with a range of 11.88 to 12.06. A wet 2 week US north plains and east Canada prairie forecast offers support to MWN. Weekly US wheat export sales were only 1 mil bu. Total commit is near 620 mil bu vs 804 ly. USDA goal is 785 vs 992 ly. Talk of slower Black Sea wheat exports has Matif new crop wheat futures making new highs. There is talk that lower Black Sea wheat exports could increase demand for EU new crop exports. There is talk that hot weather in India could reduce their export supplies.

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