Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2023
September 19, 2023
ADMISI London Wheat Report for 3 August
- August 4, 2022
- ADMISI Grains Team
- Follow us on Twitter @ADMISI_Ltd
London Wheat Report
Source: FutureSource
Nancy dropped in to show Taiwan support and left without any concrete response from China bar a week’s worth of exercises around the Taiwanese coast with substantial amounts of pyro. Strong words have been mentioned, not to antagonise China and to stay out of their regional issues. The Razoni bulk carrier has now passed through the Bosphorus after passing inspections and is continuing to steam towards Lebanon. Lloyds have announced that they are not far off creating a workable solution to insure both carriers and grain coming out of Ukraine but will this cover insure against Vlad’s missiles or will this be classed as an act of God?
Algeria came in hot on their wheat tender, believed to have purchased around circa 720kt of optional origin milling wheat, up from an initial 660kt reported by traders yesterday. Pricing is reported to be $384/t c&f for the entire volume. Source is muted to be a majority from France although additional will most likely be Russian sourced. Iran has issued a 60kt tender and Tunisia has started to receive offers for its 100kt tender. Matif Sep-22 wheat found some support from the tender activity, especially Algeria, hitting a daily high of €345/t before settling down €2.00 on yesterday at €337/t.
UK harvest pressure on logistics continues according to traders although not as substantial as last year. Traders in the US are monitoring hot, dry weather in parts of the U.S. crop belt ahead of monthly USDA production forecasts next week. Canada’s wheat and canola crops are faring better than expected after spring planting was hampered by weather that was too wet or too dry.
CME Group Inc. is considering new wheat futures as traders shy away from the existing Black Sea contract due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. The Chicago-based bourse, one of the world’s largest derivative exchanges, has been consulting with traders and brokers on starting a contract for Romanian wheat, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. No final decision has been made and talks may not result in a new product, they said. The move comes after interest in the current Black Sea contract — based on the price of Russian wheat tumbled post Ukrainian invasion.
Brent crude was trading down 2.79% at time of writing at $97.71/ba. Matif rapeseed Nov-22 pulled back on gains from yesterday with Nov-22 settling down €33.75 at €633/t.
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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