Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
A slow start to a short week, with only 65 lots traded on the London November contract, which closed the day 25 pence higher. As did MATIF, which finished up by 1.25-3 EUR, with the spread to the 2027 crop starting to widen. This was in contrast to US markets, which opened lower on cooler temperatures across the Plains/Midwest over the three-day weekend, with wet spells providing some relief to winter wheat crops. Technical selling also contributed to the downside with sharply lower crude oil prices on Monday, though headlines coming out of Iran continue to whipsaw prices.
The European Commission reports EU soft wheat exports for the 2025/26 season at 20.94 mmts by May 24th, up from 20.63 mmts the week before and 6% more than at the same stage of the 2024/25 season. Romania still takes the biggest share with 6.80 mmts, followed by France (5.31 mmts), Poland (2.91 mmts), Germany (1.94 mmts) and Lithuania (1.92 mmts). EU barley exports for 2025/26 also rose to 8.37 mmts, from 8.21 mmts last week and up 84% from this time last year.
On the import side of the equation, EU maize imports were reported at 16.32 mmts, up by only 0.34 mmts on the week but 10% below the same period of 2024/25, highlighting the competitiveness of feed wheat. Soybean imports for the 25/26 season are down 8% on the year at 11.95 mmts, whilst rapeseed imports are down 28% at 4.79 mmts.
Further east, IKAR estimates Russia’s May wheat exports at between 3.0 million tons and 3.3 million tons. Russian prices continue to rise, supported by limited domestic supply and an exceptionally strong rouble, according to Sovecon’s Andrey Sizov. Russia’s Agriculture Ministry expects grain exports this season to reach 60 million tons, with 52 million tons already shipped.
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