ADMISI London Wheat Report for 22 May

London Wheat Report

LWR chart 22 may 2023

Source: FutureSource 

Great to see so many at the London Börse on Friday and hope there weren’t too many sore heads, weather held out and a great turnout by all accounts.

Well, news coming in over the weekend was that the G7 summit basically wound up China. Facebook received a mahoosive $1.3bn fine as the age old ‘users data’ sell off continues between the US and the EU. The meat grinder that is Bakhmut is apparently in Russian army hands although this very much depends on what you read. F16s appear to be en route at some point to Zelensky so progress through that request, slow as it is, appears to be going.

Grains corridor is open and working with the same issues of vessels being delayed and inspections at a go slow. Ukraine today did say that they would be open to allowing the Kremlin to utilise the ammonia pipeline that runs from Togliati in Russia through to Pivdennyi port near Odessa, Ukraine. Currently, Pivdennyi is not part of the Black Sea deal but that pipeline does account for 2.5Mmt of Russia’s annual 4.4Mmt of ammonia exports – 20% of global seaborn trade. If Russia say yes to the port being opened, then they can have the pipeline ……. This really is a war of intrigue I must say.

Weather chat continues. Despite low groundwater levels in France, no apparent threat to any of their grains currently according to the French Ag minister Marc Fesneau. Chatter in Kansas that farmers are abandoning fields after a severe drought, unsurprising as commercial viability goes out of the window at a certain point. Russian export prices for 12.5% was at $242/t FOB according to IKAR. Kremlin confident on exporting 55Mmt of grains in the new season. As of May 18, 19Mha of crops were sown, compared to 17.6Mha by that date in 2022, of which 7.4Mha were under spring wheat (6.6Mha in the same period of 2022). The planting campaign pace is getting close to average, Sovecon said.

Chicago wheat dipped below the $6/bu level earlier today, hitting a trading low of $596.25/bu before recovering and finding some support back up to the 607 levels. We haven’t seen front month Chicago wheat drop below $6 for 2 years. US weekly wheat inspections surpassed estimates, hitting 407,682t in week ending May 18th. Matif Sep-23 was changing around Friday’s settlement level for a lot of the afternoon before settling at €221/t, marginally down on Friday. London wheat had a quiet day with Nov-23 not managing to break the £190/t level.

225kt soybean meal sale was announced was to the Philippines as funds got longer last week. Chicago beans were supported and corn also found additional support. Matif rapeseed Aug-23 settled down on Friday at €392.75/t.

Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team

Hanne Bell, Ryan Easterbrook, Dominic Enston and Aaron Stockley-Isted

Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477  or  +44 (0)20 7716 8140      Email: intl.grains@admisi.com

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© 2023 ADM Investor Services International Limited3

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

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