Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
A day of divergence; with both London and MATIF posting strong gains on the back of elevated temperatures across Europe, in contrast to US wheat markets, which began the week lower given ideal growing conditions across the Midwest and an expectation that crop conditions will edge higher in tonight’s report.
The EU’s latest MARS bulletin has reduced winter crop yields with EU soft wheat forecast at 6mt/Ha down from 6.01mt/Ha last month due to the dry spring and the heatwave in May in parts of western, central and eastern Europe. Rapeseed yields were also reduced to 3.18 mt/ha, slightly below the 3.19 mt/ha projected last month. With the heatwave not yet over, MARS raised its grain maize projection to 7.38 mt/ha from 7.30 mt/ha, up 3% from last year, sunflower to 2.08 mt/ha from 1.96 mt/ha, up 11% from 2025, and sugar beet to 77.7 mt/ha from 77.4 mt/ha, though still 5% below last year. However, this comes with the caveat that: “High temperatures and limited rainfall forecast until the end of June across much of western and central Europe will intensify crop water stress and can threaten the yield potential.”
Brazil’s soybean planting area for the 2026/27 crop year is forecast to reach a record 49.006 million hectares, a 0.9% increase from the previous cycle, according to consultancy AgRural in its first forecast. This would represent the 20th consecutive annual increase in Brazil’s soy area but also the smallest annual advance in 20 years, limited by producer profitability concerns and caution over the upcoming El Niño.
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