Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2023
September 19, 2023
ADMISI London Wheat Report for 22 July
- July 25, 2022
- ADMISI Grains Team
- Follow us on Twitter @ADMISI_Ltd
London Wheat Report
Source: FutureSource
Primary news in the Ag markets today was the Grain corridor deal that was signed in Istanbul between Russia, Ukraine, the UN and Turkey. Deal targets to allow Ukraine to fire up grains exports as soon as possible and is valid for 120 days, UN expects it to be renewed unless the war has ended by then. UN secretary general, Guterres, said the accord opens the way to significant volumes of commercial food exports from three key Ukrainian ports – Odesa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny, and the U.N. would set up a coordination centre to monitor implementation of the deal. Note Mykolaiv is not part of the deal.
Supposedly Ukrainian ports require 10 days to prepare with vessels expected to move in and out within a few weeks. Though Ukraine has mined nearby offshore areas as part of its defences against Russia’s five-month-old invasion, Ukrainian pilots would guide ships along safe channels in its territorial waters, they said. Kremlin has said that they will honour this, we will have to wait and see what happens. Neither delegations met each other and separately signed mirror copies of the document. Russian rouble export tax is forecast to drop again.
China has been on a wheat buying spree with market rumours saying that they have purchased upwards of 1mmt of Aussie wheat and circa 6-7 cargoes out of Rouen. GASC bought another 120kt of milling wheat. French wheat harvest is 84% done according to FranceAgriMer. An estimated 63% of soft wheat was in good or excellent condition, down from 64% the previous week and 75% below last year, FranceAgriMer said. Matif Sep-22 wheat turned bearish, settling down €25.00 on yesterday at €325.75/t. Between Sep and Dec Matif wheat contracts, total daily volume was seen at 92,753 lots, far higher than Chicago wheat at time of writing.
French corn crop is reportedly suffering post drought. FranceAgriMer estimated that 75% of French grain maize crop was in good or excellent condition by July 18 against 83% the previous week and 90% a year earlier. Brazil continues to compete on US corn. China has been out of the market on beans with no fresh news. Matif Aug-22 rapeseed settled up €9.75 on yesterday at €633.50/t.
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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