Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
London Wheat Report
Grains were mixed on both London and Matif, whilst US markets tentatively follow energies higher, as Brent crude tops $100 on the news that Iran seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz following attacks on three others. However, a second round of peace talks with Iran could reportedly begin by Friday. CBOT corn was also buoyed by ongoing export demand as another USDA flash showed private exporters sold another 130,000 metric tons of US corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/2026 marketing year
The 7-14 day forecast finally shows some meaningful rainfall across the US plains, though questions remain over how much yield potential can be saved and how many acres will be abandoned. Historically, 27% of the HRW crop is abandoned on an annual basis, with much of the crop planted for winter cattle grazing with no intention of harvesting for grain. Record-high cattle prices may also incentivise farmers to simply use more of the crop for forage.
SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s new wheat crop to 89.7mmt, up from 87.6 mmt, citing favourable weather. Their spring wheat crop estimate was left unchanged at 23 mmt, whilst the state-run RIA news agency warns that cold weather across Russia has caused significant delays to spring grain sowing.
European Commission data showed soft wheat exports from the European Union for the 2025/26 season had reached 19.01 million metric tons by April 19, compared with 17.62 million the previous year.
A Tunisian state grains agency purchased about 27,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a tender, underlining the competitiveness of corn relative to wheat.
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