ADMISI London Wheat Report for 16 August

London Wheat Report

Source: FutureSource 

Down, down, down, down. Rains across the states and Europe continued as did market murmurings of economic shortcomings over the horizon.

US Crop Progress and Conditions for Aug. 14. Corn 57% G/E vs 58% last week, and 62% a year ago. Soybeans 58% G/E vs 59% last week, and 57% a year ago. Spring wheat 64% G/E vs 64% last week, and 11% a year ago. Winter wheat harvest 90% vs 86% last week, and 97% a year ago.

Wheat was lower both in the US and Europe with funds having paired back their positions. Russian wheat harvest passes the halfway point during the week to Aug 15th with 67.8Mmt in the bins. Russian wheat exports continue at below average pace, with Jul-Aug Russian wheat export estimate at only 5.8Mmt, -22% to average and -28% YOY despite record crop according to SovEcon. Need to crank it up to ensure volumes get out, trade seems to not be overly worried and anticipate exports to fire up more strongly. Iraq announced to the market a US only wheat tender and Jordon bought 60kt of wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Tuesday according to traders – $385.50/t c&f apparently. Matif Sep-22 wheat settled down €7.75 on yesterday at €332/t.

In another new announcement today, it was reported on Reuters that Turkey have signed a contract for a second batch of S-400 air defence systems with Russia – something which got them into hot water with the US in 2020. I’m sure more things will appear out of the woodwork between Turk/Rus following the grains deal. Ankara haven’t had this sort of political leverage for quite a while.

Chicago soybeans were pushing lower yet again, relief rains are putting pressure on them as is the market chatter and belief that China are holding out to purchase Brazilian beans. US rely heavily on China bean sales and who by far, are the largest buyer. So what better way to antagonise your largest customer than by irritating them over Taiwan and sending a couple of aircraft carrier battle groups towards the South China Sea …. Oh hello Brazilian beans!! Time will tell and flash sales will probably appear but this is the market sentiment currently. USDA reported 228,606Mmt of new crop beans sold to Mexico. Matif rapeseed Nov-22 settled down €7.75 on yesterday at €624.50/t.

Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team

Hanne Bell, Ryan Easterbrook, Dominic Enston and Aaron Stockley-Isted

Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477  or  +44 (0)20 7716 8140      Email: intl.grains@admisi.com

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© 2022 ADM Investor Services International Limited

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

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