Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
Grain and oilseed futures started the week lower, after both the U.S. and Iran announced a peace deal overnight: ‘Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon,’ wrote Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistani Prime Minister and lead mediator, in a post on X. The official signing ceremony will be on Friday in Switzerland, which will also result in the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy prices felt the most pressure, with Brent trading at over 5% down on the open, and whilst both Chicago and Kansas wheat began the day at over 10 cents in the red, at the time of writing had returned to unchanged to 1.5c higher. European markets did not follow suit, with Matif closing 1.25-1.75 EUR down across the curve and the Nov/May spread on London widening to £11.25. Matif rapeseed was the largest mover, closing down 9 EUR in August, with veg oils following crude lower.
European crop estimates continue to get bigger, as Argus Media forecast that Romania could harvest a record wheat crop of 13.86 mmt following a crop tour in the first week of June. This was based on a record yield of 5.9 mt/ha and a record harvested area of 2.35 million Ha, though will depend on moderate rains continuing and limited storm damage ahead of harvest. The rapeseed outlook has improved, but late planting left yield expectations mixed. Producers largely remain sceptical that Romania’s rapeseed crop will surpass last year’s record.
AgRural reports that farmers in Brazil’s centre-south had harvested 8.4% of their 2026 Safrinha corn crop as of last Thursday, up from 4.4% in the previous week and above the 5.2% reported a year ago. Harvest has already begun in all states of the region, with Mato Grosso leading the way: “In the other states, however, high grain moisture levels are still keeping harvesters running at a slow pace.”
Finally, Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 mmts of milling wheat, which did little to feed the bulls. This is likely to be re-tendered on June 23rd.
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