Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2025
March 25, 2025
London Wheat Report
Volume and prices dropped today on London wheat; old crop May-25 gave back £3.95 while new crop Nov-25 traded down £0.95. London follows both Paris and Chicago wheat contracts down into the red today. Indeed, the only Ag commodity to have a strong day was Matif rapeseed, as rumours of frost damage to the 2025 rapeseed crop filtered into the market.
Back on the topic of wheat, France’s farm ministry today raised its estimate of the area sown with winter soft wheat for the 2025 harvest. The European Union’s largest grain grower adjusted its estimate to 4.61 million hectares from 4.57 million, which was previously announced in February. The country farm ministry went on to say that the total soft wheat area, including a small spring wheat area, is seen at 4.63 million hectares, a figure that is up 10% from a rain-hit harvest in 2024 and 1.1% above the five-year average.
Some slightly more bullish news from Ukraine: the Ukrainian state meteorologists were quoted saying that a sharp cold snap with deep frost and snow across all Ukrainian regions in early April has practically stopped the development of grain crops. So far this month, the minimum temperature in the air and on the soil surface dropped to minus 11 degrees Celsius for 2 to 8 days. In addition, snow and weak soil warming suspended fieldwork and sowing of early spring grains. As aforementioned, it has been reported that the country’s rapeseed crop could be hit hardest by bad weather, and the 2025 crop could be at its lowest level in three years.
Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team
Ryan Easterbrook, Aaron Stockley-Isted and Jamie Kirkwood
Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477 or +44 (0)20 7716 8140 Email: intl.grains@admisi.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
