ADMISI London Wheat Report for 13 September

More than 5,300 people have died after floods in the Libyan city of Derna. The floods burst two dams in the eastern coastal city and swept away homes. The death toll will sadly rise and some are reporting in could be into the tens of thousands. Kim Jong Un’s summit with Vladimir Putin at a cosmodrome in Russia’s far east has finished. Putin says Kim will visit other sites in Russia before crossing back into North Korea. England beat Scotland 3-1 in last nights football to further confirm complete dominance south of Hadrian’s Wall.

Overnight blistering strikes saw huge explosions hit a naval port in Sevastopol in occupied Crimea,  setting the shipyard ablaze and wounding at least 24 people, Russian officials said. CCTV Footage showed the scale of the attack, the largest of the war so far on the city which is the headquarters of Russia ‘s Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine launched 10 cruise missiles at the shipyard and three sea drones at Russian ships in the Black Sea.

Ukrainian authorities warned on Tuesday the country could seek international arbitration over restrictions on its grain exports after Poland said it would continue to block domestic imports of Ukrainian grain even if Brussels lifts a ban. Restrictions imposed by the European Union in May allowed Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia to ban domestic sales of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seeds, while permitting transit of such cargoes for export elsewhere.

Figures have been released today which show Ukraine has increased its exports via road and rail since the end of the grain deal in mid-July. 188,000 metric tons of agricultural goods were exported by lorries in the Sept. 1-11 period, compared 169,000 tons in the corresponding period in August. It had shipped 146,000 tons in the corresponding period in July. The most active road crossing points in the first week of September were between Ukraine and Poland.  Exports by rail via the Ukrainian-Polish border had also increased by 14% over the past week. Romanian boarders have also seen an increase in the past week. Romanian border crossings are used for 114.8 wagons of grain per day, up +28.8 wagons per day, or +33.49%, over the last week.

Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday lowered its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2023/24 to 9.50 million metric tons from an initial projection of 9.60 million in July, now 6.4% below last season’s level. In a supply and demand outlook, the office also cut its forecast for French soft wheat shipments within the EU this season, to 7.54 million tons from 7.79 million expected in July, though that was 18.1% higher than the 2022/23 volume. French soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season were now projected at 2.91 million tons compared with 2.69 million forecast previously and up 14.5% from last season.

World wheat markets were trading positively today. Chicago wheat was up 12 cents at the time of writing, Matif Dec23 up 5 euros. London Wheat took a bounce today and the most sizeable one for some time.  Volumes weren’t great with 350 odd crossing the line across the curve but both Nov 23 and May 24 were trading up £ 3.65 and £3.85 respectively on the close.  Nov/May spread has seen some interest of late. Last weeks ‘’mega roll’’ of 560+ lots was unmatched today, Close to 150 Nov/May spread made it to the finish line. The spread traded out to £12.50 in today’s session with the majority of volume was between the £10/£11 mark. Nov 24 traded for 5 lots @ £199.50.