ADMISI London Wheat Report for 12 January

London Wheat Report

London Wheat Report 12 January 2023

Source: FutureSource 

WASDE day today.

Bearish wheat. US wheat outlook is for unchanged supplies, larger domestic use and unchanged exports with lower ending stocks. Projected ending stocks are down slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. Chicago wheat didn’t dip as low as anticipated and actually gained after the report was released as although bearish, not as bearish as anticipated.

Global wheat outlook increases supplies, exports and consumption alongside stocks. World supplies are increased by 1.3Mmt with increases for Ukraine and the EU. World consumption is also increased by 0.2Mmt to 789.7Mmt. Global trade is upped and ending stocks are also raised. Matif wheat had a day going lower and London wheat had a decent day trading wise, especially May-23 which saw sizeable volumes traded.

Corn was pretty bullish with Chicago corn gaining after report was released. US corn outlook is for reduced production, food, seed and industrial usage. Exports are also decreased. Global corn production has been cut by 7.3Mmt to 1,446.4Mmt. Cuts have been made to Argentina and Brazil with some offsets from China. Dry conditions and heat has effected Brazil and Argentina unsurprisingly. Barley production is increased for the UK – rare UK mention there! Increased corn exports for Ukraine and reductions for Argentina and the US.

US oilseed production has been dropped by 2mmt from last month due to smaller crop sizes, especially soybeans. Soybean production is estimated at 4.276 billion bushels, down 69 million led by reductions for Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, and Kansas. Harvested area is estimated at 86.3 million acres, down 0.3 million from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushels. This has given Chicago soybeans a decent amount of support as they shot up immediately after the report was released, trading up circa 26 cents on front month and second month at time of writing.

The 2022/23 foreign soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher stocks and lower production, crush, and trade. Beginning stocks are raised due to an upward revision to Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop to 129.5 million tons, driven by higher-than-expected use through the end of the local year. Foreign 2022/23 soybean production is lowered 1.3 million tons as lower production for Argentina and Uruguay is partly offset by higher production for China and Brazil. Argentina is cut by 4Mmt to 45.5Mmt on lower area and early season heat and dry weather conditions. China is up and Brazil’s crop is upped by 1Mmt to 153Mmt.

Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team

Hanne Bell, Ryan Easterbrook, Dominic Enston and Aaron Stockley-Isted

Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477  or  +44 (0)20 7716 8140      Email: intl.grains@admisi.com

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© 2022 ADM Investor Services International Limited

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

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