Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 13 November 2026

Another momentous week, which has once again highlighted there are always unpredictable events (the ouster of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, along with Waller’s ‘guidance’ about the Fed rate outlook in the context of the latest US CPI data) which can not only upend market sentiment but also force a rapid reassessment of current risks and opportunities. The fallout from Huang’s exit will continue to ripple, for the company, the sector, at a national level (Commerce Secretary Lutnick is coming under particular scrutiny) and profoundly in terms of US/China relations, which will be tested at next week’s APEC meeting, at which Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet along with a trilateral meeting with Putin.

The protracted outage at Microsoft only adds to the current wall of worries for the tech sector, while the US administration’s assertion that it does ‘need an agreement’ with Iran leaves that looking like a ‘frozen conflict’, which for the time being will underpin the supply disruption risk premium in energy prices. Outside of US PPI, a busy run of central bank speakers and IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report, the rest of the day’s schedule will struggle to have anything more than a passing impact.

Perhaps most worrying for investors is the glaring lack of ‘safe havens’ in asset terms, even if a stronger USD does appear to have capped the sharp sell-off in US Treasuries (though primarily in shorter dates in a typical textbook defensive move), though JGB, UK and Eurozone yields continue to move higher, and other safe havens such as gold at best staging a dead cat bounce after another sharp sell-off.

While next week has a lot of top-level economic data, it seems unlikely to ‘steal the show’ from Nvidia’s Q3 earnings, the reportedly 6x oversubscribed Anthropic IPO and the APEC meeting. In the category of underdiscussed topics, the efforts to rejig Japan’s budget do not really seem to be getting sufficient coverage despite some measures clearly having profound impacts. First there was last week’s news that the road fuel subsidy is to be cut, and today deep cuts to expected defence orders (with planned purchases of some missiles and aircraft possibly halved), all largely to achieve tax cuts (above all food sales tax) that PM Takaichi has pledged.

** U.S.A. – October PPI **

– PPI is expected to slow in headline terms to 0.4% m/m (vs. Sept 1.3%), but still rise 0.3 ppt to 6.6% y/y, with core measures remaining elevated at 0.4% m/m on the ex-Food, Energy & Trade (vs. Sept 0.5%), pressured by transportation (on the back of fuel costs), healthcare and computer software, despite some easing in airfares (but still likely well above 1.0% m/m), though base effects will help to lower the y/y rate to 4.8% from 5.0%.