Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
London Wheat Report
London Wheat Tracks Wider Commodity Weakness
A busy start to the week for London wheat, with over 680 lots trading as prices followed the wider complex lower. May-27 took the lion’s share of the volume, falling £2.25 to £205.75 having traded as low as £205.00. Nov-26 lost £1.75 to £192.00 on just 39 lots, with open interest in the expiring contract now down to 122 lots, while Nov-27 slipped £1.25 to £196.00.
Matif Bears the Brunt of Selling
Matif bore the brunt of the selling, with Dec-26 plunging €6.75 to €227.25 on over 76,000 lots, having traded as high as €234.50. Across the pond, CBOT Dec-26 SRW fell as much as 2%, its lowest level since 9 July, and was down 8.75 cents at the time of writing.
Black Sea Developments Remove Risk Premium
As per Bloomberg reporting, wheat has now erased the Black Sea risk premium built since early July, after Interfax reported that Russia is considering proposals to ensure the safety of Black Sea grain shipments, citing Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov. Moscow is discussing the issue with Turkey and several other nations.
Funds Increase Bearish Positions
Wider commodity weakness added to the pressure after the Brazilian real tumbled on President Lula’s surprise election win, while Northern Hemisphere harvests continue to rebuild inventories. Hedge funds have steadily pared their wheat longs, with bearish positions now at a 15-week high. Still, even if peace materialises, trade flows are unlikely to revert quickly, with many importers having switched to longer, more expensive routes.
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