Agricultural Prices Mixed And Little Changed

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Quiet trade overnight as agricultural prices are mixed and little changed.  Energy prices are higher fueled by Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and fears the US and Israel may renew strikes on Iran. WTI Dec-26 crude oil is up $2.00 per barrel at $101.50 while holding below its contract high.  Spot RBOB is up $.04 per gallon while HO is $.03 higher.  Dry across the nation’s midsection yesterday.  Rain this weekend in the plains and portions of the WCB to stretch into the NC Midwest by early next week.  The central Midwest and ECB remains dry enabling US harvest to get back on track.  Harvest delays will likely be limited to NE and SE SD.  Above normal temperatures hold across the Midwest into early November with above normal precipitation for the central Midwest in week 2 of the outlook.  Healthy rains in central and S. Argentina the past 24 hours will slow plantings.  Moderate to heavy rain for the interior south of Brazil over the next week with renewed flooding concern.  Temperatures hold at below normal levels for Argentina and S. Brazil while warm in N. Brazil.  The US $$$ is moderately higher while holding within yesterday’s range.  US stock indices are lower.

Corn: 

Dec-26 is $.01 lower at $4.59 ½.  Harvest likely passed the halfway point this week as prices struggle to find a bottom with harvest pressure while speculative traders continue to shed length.  Open interest from yesterday was down 10k contracts.  This afternoon’s COF report is expected to show cattle inventories at 11.441 mil. head as of Oct. 1^st, slightly above 11.418 mil. YA.  Placements are expected to be down 8.3% while marketing off 7.3%.  Exports are down 34% YTD vs. the USDA forecast of down 4%.  South American production forecasts for the 26/27 MY are considerably higher than the USDA.

Soybeans: 

Nov-26 beans are $.02 ½ higher at $12.55 ½, holding within yesterday’s range.  Spot futures ended its run on consecutive lower closes at 8 closing slightly higher yesterday as China continues its march towards acquiring 25 mmt of US beans.  Support below the market is at $12.28.  Dec-26 meal is up $1.10 at $348.40 while Dec-26 oil is down 10 points at 66.65.  Crush margins are little changed at $2.44 ½ bu.  Soybean O.I. plunged nearly 26k contracts yesterday, meal was down 5.6k while oil was down 3.4k contracts.  I’d estimate with Chinese purchases have likely reached 18 mmt.  China’s Sinograin will auction off another 512k mt of soybeans from Govt. reserves next Tues. the 27^th.  I believe the USDA export forecast at 1.695 bil. bu. (46.1 mmt) will prove to be too low.  US Gulf FOB offers holding $.20-$.40 below Brazilian offers into the end of the year.  US harvest likely reaching 80%+ by the end of this weekend.

Wheat: 

Prices are steady to $.05 higher with all 3 classes experiencing 2-sided trade.  CGO Dec-26 is $.01 higher at $6.25 ¾, Dec-26 KC is steady at $6.65 ¾ while Dec-26 MIAX is $.05 higher at $6.47.    Hopes for peace in the Black Sea combined with wheat trying to find a price that attracts demand has pressured the feed grain to fresh 3-month lows this week.  Spot MIAX futures are $1.50 bu. off their Sept-26 highs.  Next support is at the June-26 low at $6.25 while the contract low is $6.21.  We’ve got the MM short position in CGO wheat back up to 50k contracts, the largest in 3 months.  O.I. in CGO was up nearly 1k contracts yesterday while up 1.7k in KC.  Trilateral talks between US, Russia and Ukraine are slated for Nov. 10^th, meanwhile the fighting continues.  US exports are down 33% YOY vs. the USDA forecast of down 17%.  Commitments at only 392 mil. bu. are the 2^nd lowest in decades.  US winter wheat acres in drought slipped 4% to 49%.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.