Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
London Wheat Report
London Wheat Futures
A heavy day of selling for London wheat, as the market broke decisively below the £200 mark. Just over 670 lots traded across the exchange, with Nov-26 dropping £5.00 to £195.75 and May-27 falling £5.75 to £207.75. Nov-27 also lost £3.50 to £196.50, while Nov-28 saw a rare outing, trading 14 lots at £198.00.
European and US Wheat Markets
Matif fared even worse, with Dec-26 plunging €8.00 to €233.00 on almost 120,000 lots, roughly double recent daily volumes, having traded as high as €242.00. Across the pond, CBOT Dec-26 SRW was down 15 cents at $6.28¼ at the time of writing, having touched $6.21, as Chicago hit an 11-week low and extended its losing streak to a fifth day.
Developments in Peace Negotiations
The selling came as traders wound back risk premiums amid renewed peace efforts. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Putin had agreed ‘in principle’ to resume trilateral talks with Washington and Kyiv after 10 November, following a meeting with US envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg. Trump also kept up pressure on Ukraine, saying it was ‘time to make a deal’. Any move towards a ceasefire could unlock large volumes of Russian and Ukrainian wheat.
Ongoing Black Sea and Export Market Considerations
However, Lachstock Consulting warned traders against ‘complacency’ on the Black Sea, pointing to a claimed Russian strike on a dry cargo vessel near Odesa and territorial positions that remain far apart. Weak US export demand and the southern hemisphere harvest have added further pressure, with fund bearish positions hitting a three-month high last week.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
