Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
London Wheat Report
London Wheat Falls Alongside Global Grain Markets
London wheat followed global grains lower today, with all traded contracts settling in the red on around 430 lots. Nov-26 led the decline, settling £2.75 lower at £200.75 after trading down to £200.25, a whisker away from the £200 mark. May-27 took the bulk of the volume and settled £2.00 lower at £213.50, while Nov-27 lost £2.25 to £200.00.
Matif Reverses Early Gains
Matif reversed early gains, with Dec-26 trading up to €247.50 before settling €2.00 lower at €241.50 on just over 58,000 lots. Mar-27 fell harder, down €2.75 to €241.00, returning Dec-26 to a small premium. Across the pond, CBOT Dec-26 SRW was down 12¼ cents at $6.43 at the time of writing, sitting at the bottom of its $6.42¾-6.62 range.
US Export Demand Remains Weak
US wheat continues to struggle for demand, with weekly export inspections of 240kt missing the 350kt expected and the export pace now down 36% year-on-year. Winter wheat planting moved on to 63% complete, close to the 64% expected, while funds cut their wheat longs by around 9,000-10,000 contracts in the week to 13 October.
Soybean Sales and Black Sea Exports in Focus
In the oilseed complex, Bloomberg reported US sales of 612,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery, including a 330,000-tonne flash sale, although grains showed little reaction. In the east, some estimates have Russia’s October wheat exports on pace for just 2 mmt, compared with 5.5 mmt last October, as Black Sea disruption continues to hamper shipments from the region.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
