Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil was lower early Thursday on reports late Wednesday that the Trump administration was considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet vessels, but it was back near Wednesday’s high as the session progressed. The ease in the sanctions as described would not allow Russian and Iranian oil shipments but would free up more vessels to ship oil and products out of the Persian Gulf, which are at a premium due to the increased need for ship-to-ship transfers. This news offered temporary balm to the market after the increased attacks in Mideast this week, with a container ship and a dry bulk carrier both sinking near the Strait of Hormuz and a Houthi attack on the Saudi Aramco headquarters. Iran has been stepping up strikes in response to the US blockade and sanctions and perhaps to the reports earlier this month that oil exports out of the Gulf had reached their highest level since the war started. Ukraine has resumed its attacks on Russian refineries with a strike at an installation in the Ryazan.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were lower early Thursday, perhaps lagging the upturn in crude oil. Data from Enterprise Singapore indicating combined onshore oil product inventories in Singapore had reached 42.23 million barrels as of October 14, up from 39.80 million a week earlier and their highest level in a month indicate some reliefive in tight global supplies. Singapore was a net importer of diesel and gasoil for the week, with cargo inflows mainly from China, Malaysia and South Korea.
NATURAL GAS
December Natural Gas was inside Wednesday’s range early Thursday. The market failed an attempt to take out the September high on Wednesday, perhaps because of a slight increase in US production reversed a recent pattern of declines.
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