Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil was approaching its contract high from September early Wednesday in the wake of another Houthi attack in Saudi Arabia overnight, this time on Saudi Aramco headquarters in Dhahran. Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Iran is deploying new tactics to target ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, apparently extending their attacks further outside the strait and into the Gulf of Oman and beyond. They said the new attacks started about 10 days ago. The IEA said tight diesel supplies could persist well into next year. The group is to meet on Thursday to discuss the planned release of diesel stocks. IEA also said Russian crude oil production increased by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million bpd, 870,000 below year-ago levels. Crude exports rose 60,000 bpd from August to 5.3 million, but refinery runs were flat for a second consecutive month because of Ukrainian strikes.
PRODUCTS
December ULSD reached a new contract high early Wednesday, while December RBOB was continued to consolidate in the wake of achieving a new contract high last Thursday. The early Reuters poll has US gasoline stocks -800,000 barrels last week and distillates -2.0 million. The EIA report will be released on Thursday, delayed one day by the holiday.
NATURAL GAS
December Natural Gas reached its highest level since September 24, the day the market put in a two month high, early Wednesday. A significant drop in US gas output has fed a rally off the October 2 contract lows. LSEG said on Tuesday that average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has fallen to 110.6 bcfd this month after reaching record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September. Hurricane Isaias production shut-ins caught some of the blame, but problems on pipelines in Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and elsewhere over the past month or so have been the primary reason. Heating demand should start to pick up as the season advances, but the forecasts are warm enough to suggest that the recovery will be slow.
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