Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mixed trade across the Ag space this AM with the soybean complex a bit higher while feed grains are slightly lower. US soybean harvest was a bit further along than expected while corn harvest lagged expectations. Beans ratings were steady while corn showed modest improvement. Energy prices are mixed with spot WTI crude oil up $1.45 per barrel at $95.60, spot RBOB is steady while HO is down $.03 per gallon. Moderate to heavy rains in E. KS and W. MO the past 24 hours. Showers will continue to pull from the Central Plains toward the Great Lakes region the next 48 hours, slowing harvest progress. Dryer conditions in the N. Plains and SE. Week 2 of the outlook shows above normal temperatures across the Midwest with above normal precipitation for the WCB and plain states. Below normal temperatures for Argentina and most of Brazil over the next week. Dry for Argentina, wet in S. Brazil while increased shower activity in WC Brazil. The US $$ is slightly higher in 2-sided trade awaiting key inflation data. US consumer prices in Sept. are expected to have risen 3.6% YOY, up from +3.4% the previous month. US stock indices are mixed and little changed.
Corn:
Dec-26 is steady at $4.82 ½ while holding within yesterday’s range. Dec-26 futures rejected trade above its 100-day MA yesterday while still holding support above Friday’s low. Longer term support is at the August low at $4.57 ¼. Open interest was down less than 1k contracts from yesterday’s trade. Corn ratings improved 2% to 56% G/E. Composite ratings improved in 6 states, declined in 4 while holding steady in 8. Ratings fell 5% in CO and MI while improving 4% in OH, 3% in IN and ND, and up 2% in IL and NE. Harvest advanced only 10% to 33%, the slowest pace in 7 years while below the 5-year Ave. of 39%. Biggest delays are in IA at 14% vs. 34% Ave., SD at 15% vs. 31% Ave. and MI at only 4% vs. 22% Ave. Updated ratings and ear population data suggest an average US yield of 179.3 bpa with production at 15.865 bil. bu. up 107 mil. from last week while below the USDA forecast at 16.034 bil. bu.
Soybeans:
Nov-26 beans are $.08 higher at $12.92, Dec-26 meal is up $.70 at $363.90 while Dec-26 oil is up 18 points at 68.20, all holding within yesterday’s range. Cash sources and wire services are reporting China purchased 8-10 cargoes of US beans for Dec/Jan shipment paying $3.10-$3.20 over Jan-27 futures. Crush margins have backed off $.03 ½ to $2.60 bu. Open interest from yesterday’s trade was up 5.7k in soybeans, 11.5k in soybean oil while down 1.1k in meal. China imported 11.88 mmt of soybeans in Sept-26 from all sources, down 7.7% YOY and down 2.1% from Aug-26. YTD purchases at 86.1 mmt are down less than 1% from YA. Crop ratings held steady at 57% G/E. Ratings improved in 11 states, declined in 5 while holding steady in 2. Ratings were up 4% in OH and NC, 3% in ND and MN while up 2% in IL and SD. Ratings fell 5% in KY while down 3% in MI and WI. Harvest advanced 21% to 46%, still behind the 5-year Ave. of 50%. Most noted delays are in IA at 31% vs. 59% Ave. and NE at 26% vs. 55% Ave. Updated ratings and pod count data suggest an average US yield of 52.6 bpa with production at 4.516 bil. bu. up 23 mil. bu. from last week while below the updated USDA forecast of 4.562 bil.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.02-$.04 lower in 2-sided trade. CGO Dec-26 is down $.02 ¾ at $6.66 ½, Dec-26 KC is down $.04 at $7.08 while Dec-26 MIAX is $.02 lower at $6.92. Algeria reportedly bought between 600-720k mt of milling wheat near $326/mt CF. The grain was likely sourced from Russia via Baltic ports, along with Romania, Bulgaria and Argentina. Shipment is for Dec-26. EU soft wheat exports as of Oct. 11th at 8 mmt are off 27% YOY. Ukraine’s largest farm union expects they will export no more than 11 mmt of wheat in the 26/27 MY, down from 14 mmt YA and below the USDA estimate of 12.5 mmt. Since July they have shipped only 3.13 mmt, down 44% YOY. US winter wheat plantings advanced 15% to 51%, below the 5-year Ave. of 58%. 27% of the crop has emerged vs. the 5-year Ave. of 32%.
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