Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
CORN
Prices were mixed and closed with very little change in choppy 2-sided trade while spreads weakened. Dec-26 held support at last week’s low of $4.95. Next support is at $4.88 with near term resistance at the 50-day MA at $5.07 ½. MM’s were net sellers of 36.6k contracts of corn, reducing their long position to 378k, a 5-week low. Through today’s close I’d guess is much closer to 315k. Very uneven rainfall across the Central Midwest last week. While significant harvest delays in some areas, good harvest progress was made across the S. Midwest and much of the ECB. I look for US harvest to have advanced 11% to 29% complete, matching the 5-year Ave. The USDA announced a flash sale of 129.5 mmt (5 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. Export inspections at 54 mil. bu. was in line with expectations, however below the 63 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections are up 4% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 4.6%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 21 mil., Japan – 15 mil., while Colombia took 7 mil. AgRural is reporting Brazil’s 1st crop plantings advanced only 4% LW to 38% vs. 40% YA. For corn to bounce off recent lows we’ll likely need to see a bullish production figure from the USDA on Friday (below 15.7 bil.) and/or demand interest from China.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the complex with beans up $.02-$.03, meal was mixed while oil finished 70-80 points higher. Bean and oil spreads weakened while meal spreads were firm. Nov-26 beans stalled below $13 before pulling back. Dec-26 meal fell to a 1-month low before recovering. Dec-26 oil surged thru its 50 and 100-day MA resistance levels while briefly piercing $.70 lb. Favorable harvest conditions look to extend into mid-month after heavy rains in September delayed crop maturation and harvest across areas of the WCB and Central Midwest. CFTC data showed MM’s were net sellers of nearly 24k contracts of soybeans, nearly 9k oil while buying 15k meal. Index funds have been net sellers in soybean for 4 consecutive weeks. Crush margins improved $.11 to $2.45 ½ with BO PV improving to 50%. With China on Golden Holiday until Thursday, demand interest will likely be quiet however the USDA did announce a flash sale of 104k mt (3.8 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. Chinese purchases likely sitting at just over 14 mmt. Reports of mold and other disease issues in areas impacted by heavy rains last week likely supporting early strength. I expect harvest to have advanced 13% to 30%, below the 5-year Ave. of 35%. AgRural is reporting Brazil’s plantings have reached just over 7% vs. 9% YA. Export inspections at 42 mil. bu. was in line with expectations and above the 29 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast. YTD inspections are up 31% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 10%. China took 28 mil. bu. with Algeria taking 5 mil.
WHEAT
Prices closed $.07-$.11 higher in 2-sided trade. CGO Dec-26 was up $.09 ¼ at $6.92 ¼, Dec-26 KC was $.07 higher at $7.42, while Dec-26 MIAX was up $.10 ½ at $7.08 ½. The Russia/Ukraine war continues to intensify as Russia struck port infrastructure in Odesa while also destroying a vessel loaded with grain. Russia also struck a key bridge in Kyiv. Ukraine continues to target Russia energy infrastructure. Wire services are also reporting a Russian drone may have struck a vessel in the Black Sea in Romanian territorial waters killing 1 while 1 remains missing. 11 other crew members were rescued. Romania is a NATO member. Ukraine’s wheat exports since July 1st at 2.9 mmt are down 43% YOY, while 30% of the winter crop has been planted. Saudi Arabia reportedly bought 683k mt of wheat in their recent tender for 535k mt. Prices ranged from $334.66-$348/mt CF with an average of $339.24. The grain was sourced from Australia, the Black Sea region, the EU along with N. and S. America. Export inspections at 11 mil. bu. was in line with expectations, while below the 14 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast. YTD inspections are down 35% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. MM’s have been net sellers across the 3 classes of wheat for 4 consecutive weeks.
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