Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
CRUDE OIL
November Crude Oil was higher early Wednesday but inside Tuesday’s range down action. News of a rebound in Mideast oil exports this week have pulled prices of the highs from earlier in the month. There is also talk of Iranians feeling the pressure from the US blockade and sanctions, which has brought them back to the negotiating table. Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil exports at 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, in line with the 2025 average. This would include “dark exports” which is oil on ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz with their transponders off. They noted that crude oil accounted for nearly 90% of the recovery at 19 million bpd, which his 108% of their 2025 average, of which 5.2 million bpd were dark. Diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel exports remained at 50% of their 2025 averages. The European Union is considering delaying its methane emissions rules for oil and gas imports, and IEA members may discuss whether to release more strategic oil reserves.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were both decidedly higher early Wednesday after Tuesday’s declines. The Goldman Sach estimates showing gasoline and diesel still lagging last year despite a surge in crude oil further illustrates the immediate concern about product supply. Russia has extended its ban on diesel exports for fuel producers until the end of October. Reuters reported that the Trump administration has urged the EU to draw down emergency diesel inventories in an effort to lower global prices.
NATURAL GAS
November Natural Gas was near unchanged early Wednesday after inching below Tuesday’s lows. The market has once again sold off sharply in the wake of a quick rally, and it is once again in the vicinity of contract lows. Last week’s surge off a force majeure declared on a pipeline in West Virginia proved only temporary support after the flows were restored. LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states is running around 112.2 billion cubic feet per day this month September, which his down from the record 112.3 bcfd in August. Up until recently production was running significantly higher, but the shutdown last week changed this, temporarily.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
