ADMIS News
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
COCOA
December Cocoa was near unchanged early Wednesday but near the bottom of Tuesday’s range. The market has managed to hold just above the 100-day moving average after testing it for the past two sessions. On Tuesday cocoa received a bit of bearish demand news when Lindt & Spruengli cut its 2026 sales forecast for the second time this year, blaming higher prices for its products (due to record cocoa prices in 2024 that raise their costs) and the heatwaves in Europe this summer that lowered demand. The company now expects organic sales growth of 0% to 2%, down from its earlier forecast of 4% to 6%. They said the heatwave this summer reduced growth by roughly 1.5%.
COFFEE
December Coffee gapped higher early Wednesday to reach its highest level since September 9. The market has managed a 29-cent gain (+11%) over the past six sessions following a steep selloff from late August on a sharp increase in Brazilian exports. Long-suspected quality concerns have emerged. Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest coffee co-operative, sent advisory to its farmers on Tuesday that it will reject beans that show “inferior quality standards.” The co-op said it will not accept deliveries of coffee that would show presence of mycotoxins, chemical substances produced naturally by certain molds and fungi on grains or coffee that sustained long exposure to humidity. This action reinforces concerns raised by market players about possible quality issues with Brazil’s 2026 crop due to higher humidity. Coffee that had contact with the wet soil for a prolonged period of time could develop a bad taste and would run the risk of being rejected by an importer.
COTTON
December Cotton was lower early Wednesday following Tuesday’s limit down close. Harvest pressure, a strong dollar, weaker crude oil, and (fears of) fund liquidation attracted heavy selling. The market has fallen to its lowest level since mid-July and has given back 84% of its gains from the June low. US crop conditions increased slightly last week but remained well below normal with little chance of improvement. Harvest was 17% completed, which was slightly ahead of average. The nearby Dollar Index reached its highest level since late July on Tuesday and was flirting with 16-month highs, and this keeps traders concerned about US export prospects. Last week’s export sales report showed a strong increase over the previous four weeks. Another strong report on Thursday could ease some of those concerns.
SUGAR
March Sugar was back lower on the day early Wednesday after a rally to its highest level since September 15 earlier in the session. That high was at the upper end of a two week trading range and was toward the middle of the range between to the contract high of 19.90 from September 10 and the September 22 low at 18.02. The market finds underlying support from low production prospects in Europe, India and Brazil. Brazil trade ministry data showed the nation’s sugar exports for September 1-25 were 2.4 million metric tons, -9.3% from the same period in 2025. EU crop monitoring service MARS this week cut its 2026 sugar beet yield forecast by 17%, saying rainfall came too late to reverse damage from this summer’s heat and drought.
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