Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine: Q3 2026 Macro Outlook
September 28, 2026
ADMISI London Wheat Report: ICE Feed Wheat 28 September 2026
- ADMISI Grains Team
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London Wheat Report
London Wheat Follows Broader Agricultural Markets Lower
After a cautious start to the week, London wheat eventually decided to follow the rest of the global ags into the red as all traded contracts ended the day priced down on Friday’s settlement. Trading volumes were thin across the day for London wheat as market participants took stock of a fresh wave of geopolitics.
Ukraine Sees No Positive Signs for Black Sea Ceasefire
Given the bearish mood of the markets, it would be assumed there may have been some correlated news; however, today’s main story originated from the Black Sea region as Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister stated that the country saw no positive signs that there could be a ceasefire covering grain exports via the Black Sea in the coming months. The minister referenced continued strikes in the region that have drastically cut the country’s ability to export products vital to global supplies.
Alternative Export Routes Remain Limited
Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister earlier this month stated that his country has seen an increase in exports using alternatives to the Black Sea, now at 45% of what needs to be shipped. Importantly, however, Ukraine’s analysis is that a maximum of 50% of agricultural commodities can be exported via these routes, meaning there is a risk that around 30 mmt of agricultural commodities will not be exported from the country this marketing year.
US-China Trade Talks Weigh on Soybeans
Across the pond, CBOT soybean futures fell to their lowest since late August. This comes after the crop was left off the list as the US and China detailed plans to cut tariffs across a number of other agricultural products. Both governments were reported to state that they ‘intend’ to cut rates on about $30 billion of imports as they take further steps to steady ties following last week’s summit between Presidents Trump and Xi.
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