Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 10 August 2026

Be that as it may, the statistical week has US and China inflation, UK Q2 GDP and monthly activity data, along with China credit aggregates, with the RBA and Norges Bank seen holding rates at their respective policy meetings, and a smattering of Fed speakers on tap. Asia dominates the earnings schedule via Chinese banks, tech companies such as Foxconn, Lenovo, SMIC and Tencent, auto giant BYD with Applied Materials and Coreweave in focus in the US, shipping giants AP Moller-Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd, and energy suppliers E.On and RWE among the highlights in Europe.

 

U.S.A.: Following on from Friday’s unexpectedly weak US labour data, the focus switches back to the inflation pillar of the Fed’s mandate. A confluence of factors are seen pacing a modest 0.1% m/m headline CPI increase, which would see the y/y rate dip to 3.4%, with a very average 0.2% m/m core CPI print seeing a drop in the y/y rate to 2.5%, the lowest reading since March 2021. A 3.6% m/m fall in gasoline prices, a drop in airfares, hotels and indeed auto insurance, as well as used car prices, with benign base effects from last year’s tariff related increases on goods price should help to keep inflation subdued. While such a core CPI outturn would suggest inflation continues to fall, the fact is that the core PCE Deflator, which the Fed targets, does not, given it stood at 3.3% y/y in June. Indeed, Thursday’s PPI is likely to see particular upward pressure from Portfolio Management Fees (which feed into the PCE deflators), as well as other Services components, even if gasoline, jet fuel and airfares provide an offset, with headline seen up 0.2% m/m and core 0.3% m/m, in turn driving y/y rates down 0.6 ppts to 4.9% and 4.1%. Otherwise the focus will be on Existing Home Sales, expected to fall again (-0.9% m/m), though at a slower pace than June as elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh, as well as on Retail Sales that will see a drag on headline from autos, though core components are also expected to be constrained with ex-Autos & Gas and Control Group measures both seen up 0.3% m/m (in part weighed down by the earlier timing of Amazon’s Prime Day event), implying a weak start for Q3 GDP from Personal Consumption. Michigan Sentiment rounds off the week’s US data run, with a setback to 54.6 from 55.2 expected, and no change in the sub-indices for Inflation Expectations expected.

 

China: Sunday’s CPI and PPI were much weaker than expected, with CPI at -0.1% m/m and just 0.5% y/y vs. expected 0.8%, while PPI dropped -0.7% m/m to drag the y/y down to 3.5% from June’s 4.1%. CPI saw a hefty drag from Consumer Goods, which rose 0.2% y/y as against 1.1% in June, with lower fuel prices pacing an even sharper decline in Transport & Communication to just 0.4% y/y vs June 4.1%. PPI was dragged lower by Fuel & Power (9.3% y/y vs. prior 11.8%) and Non-ferrous Metals (19.0% y/y vs. prior 21.6%). It implies that the return to a positive inflation trend since March may not prove to be durable if energy prices do not rebound, and that measures to counter ‘involution’ (i.e. price cutting to gain market share) introduced in Q4 2025 are not getting any traction and thus pointing to continued weakness in domestic demand. July credit aggregates are likely to double down on that latter impression, with Aggregate Financing dropping to just CNY 1.1 Trln (vs. June 3.4 Trln), with behind target govt borrowing a key contributor, while a combination of a lack of consumer demand for loans, and that fact that many of the booming tech companies are not heavily reliant on financing, and other weaker manufacturing sectors have little demand for credit, and in many cases banks are simply not willing to lend to them given a squeeze on profits.

 

U.K.: Ahead of Thursday’s Q2 prov. GDP, BRC Retail Sales are seen slowing modestly to 1.5% y/y from 1.7%, with England’s run in the World Cup likely boosting food and drink sales, but weighing on other sectors. June GDP is expected to contract -0.1% m/m, which would see Q2 GDP slowing to a better than originally expected 0.4% q/q, but equally point to a loss of momentum as the quarter progressed, with Private Consumption seen at a rather sluggish 0.2% q/q vs. 0.6% in Q1, and Business Investment turning modestly negative at -0.4% q/q vs. Q1 0.9%, offset by marginal positive contribution from Net Exports, after a hefty drag in Q1. Monthly indicators are forecast to show -0.1% m/m for Manufacturing Output, and -0.4% m/m for Construction Output, with a small offset from a 0.1% m/m increase in the Index of Services. The loss of momentum, allied with ongoing weakness in labour demand, above all in the private sector, would thus vindicate the BoE’s ‘stand pat’ stance on rates despite upward pressure on inflation in coming months.

 

Elsewhere, Australia’s RBA is expected to hold rates on the back of CPI easing more than it had anticipated back in May, as well as the softening in the labour market, and increasing headwinds for the housing sector, but it will likely continue to retain a tightening bias. Japan’s PPI is likely to show continued upward pressure with a rise of 0.6% m/m, 7.4% y/y (vs. June 0.4% m/m, 7.1%). The Eurozone has the second reading on Q2 GDP, seen unrevised at the better than expected 0.4% q/q, as well as Q2 Employment. India looks to CPI, which is forecast to be little changed at 4.4%, while WPI is seen edging up to 10.0% y/y from June’s 9.87%, with Trade data also on tap.

 

There are just 10 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include: ABN Amro Bank, Adyen, Alcon, Antofagasta, AP Moller-Maersk, Applied Materials, ASX, Avary Holding Shenzhen, Banco BTG Pactual, Bank Hapoalim, Bank Leumi Le-Israel, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Barrick Mining, Brookfield, BYD, Cardinal Health, Cathay Financial Holding, Cerebras Systems, CEZ, China CITIC Bank, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, China Southern Airlines, China Unicom Hong Kong, CK Hutchison, Coherent, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Constellation Software Canada, CoreWeave, Credicorp, E.ON, Elbit Systems, Ferguson Enterprises, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Franco-Nevada, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Gulf Development, Hannover Re, Hapag-Lloyd, Hindustan Aeronautics, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Hua Hong Grace Semiconductor, Itausa, JD.com, Kweichow Moutai, Lenovo, Lumentum, Moore Threads Technology, S&AD Insurance Group, MTR, Nebius Group, Nu Holdings Cayman Islands, Orsted, Ping An Bank, QBE Insurance Group, Rocket Lab, RWE, Sampo, Samsung Life Insurance, Sea, SMIC aka Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Shengyi Technology, Simon Property Group, Sompo, Sony Financial, Standard Bank Group, Talanx, Tapestry, Telstra, Tencent, Tokio Marine, Transurban, Treasury Wine Estates, Venture Global, Vestas Wind Systems, Zijin Gold International.