Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
September Crude Oil was higher early Tuesday, following through from Monday’s rally. US carried out a third consecutive night of strikes, President Trump has reinstated the blockade of Iranian shipping, and Iranian missiles struck two Emirati oil tankers, which confirms that the cease-fire is dead in the water. It seems we are back to where we were before the Memorandum of Understanding was signed. The Houthis in Yemen have reportedly fired missiles at Saudi Arabia, which would be their first attack since March 2022 and raises concerns about shipping in the Red Sea. Since the Iran/US war began, Saudi Arabia has been diverting more of their oil via pipeline to the Red Sea. Ukraine’s said it struck two Russian oil refineries overnight.
PRODUCTS
Product prices showed more impressive gains than crude oil, as global product supplies are even tighter than crude oil. Reports of more Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries add to the concern. Russia has already suspended diesel exports, and domestic gasoline supplies are tight. Russian gasoline output fell to the equivalent of 65% of the seasonal average consumption, according to a Reuters calculations.
NATURAL GAS
September Natural Gas managed to hold about Monday’s low early in Tuesday’s trading but just barely. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show less heat and more below to below normal temperatures over the northeast quadrant of the US, which his considerably cooler than the forecasts late last week. This will not help draw down US supply. For this week’s EIA natural gas storage report, the early Reuters poll has a range of expectation calling for a net injection of 33-49 billion cubic feet for the week ending July 10.
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